Precious Metals Collapse and Bitcoin CME Gap Filling Battle: Bulls Hope for a Mid-term Rebound

In early February, a personnel appointment news triggered a chain reaction in global asset markets. The announcement that Trump nominated Kevin Waugh as Federal Reserve Chair immediately caused market panic over the “Waugh Shock.” Seen as a hawkish candidate, investors worried that the era of balance sheet expansion was ending, and escalating geopolitical risks—such as Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei issuing a “regional war” warning and the U.S. deploying carrier strike groups—pushed this anxiety to the extreme. The collective panic turned into direct action: the dollar surged rapidly, while precious metals and commodities suffered defeats under multiple blows.

Precious Metals and Commodities Plunge Simultaneously, Safe-Haven Logic Reverses

Spot gold’s decline was particularly shocking. Once considered the ultimate safe-haven asset, it fell from a high of $5,596 to below $4,450, with a daily drop of 9%. This was more than a technical correction; it was a deep retracement of over $1,100—wiping out nearly five years of long-term profits in a single day. Even more startling was spot silver, which tumbled over 14% intraday, breaking below $73 and ranking third in global commodity declines.

The London Metal Exchange also reflected a grim atmosphere. Copper prices dropped over 5%, while London nickel plunged 6% to $16,496.20 per ton. The domestic lithium carbonate market hit the daily limit down, with quotes falling to ¥132,440 per ton. WTI crude oil also declined to around $62 amid the strong dollar impact. Facing such volatility, the Thai Futures Exchange was forced to respond—limiting the daily price fluctuation of silver futures to ±30% of the latest settlement price and suspending gold futures trading.

However, such extreme declines also contained the seeds of a rebound. Pepperstone strategist Michael Brown pointed out that the metal markets’ decline exhibited typical overshoot characteristics—“sharp and rapid,” often signaling an imminent “dead cat bounce.” From a long-term fundamental perspective, the bullish case for precious metals remains intact: central banks continue buying, retail demand remains strong, and amid escalating geopolitical risks, metals remain a better safe-haven than the dollar or US Treasuries. The key question is: has the market fully squeezed the bubble and cleared speculative positions, allowing fundamentals to regain control of price trends?

Bitcoin Hits Key Support, Intense Bottom Fight

In tandem with the collapse of metals, Bitcoin’s decline was even more direct and fierce. Once dubbed “digital gold,” it broke below the $75,000 psychological level amid liquidity shocks, with a low of $74,612—its lowest in 10 months. This marked the fifth consecutive month of decline and left only about $100 of buffer before hitting the critical psychological support at $74,501—markets are dancing on the edge.

For long-term holders, this price level is a heavy burden. Michael Saylor’s Strategy, holding approximately 712,647 BTC at an average buy-in of around $76,000, already faces unrealized losses exceeding $900 million at current prices. This is not just a number; it’s a severe test of confidence in holdings.

Market analysts are forming a consensus on the bottom. Ardi, Greeny, and ERROR all identify the $70,000–$75,000 zone as a critical support. Losing this level would be highly destructive. Several analysts further warn that if Bitcoin cannot hold $70,000, the next support targets could drop to $69,000 or even $54,000. Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, emphasized the psychological importance of this level—further breakdown below $70,000 could severely damage long-term confidence.

In this bottom-fighting phase, bearish views still dominate. Astronomer considers the $74,300 “last line of defense” often a trap, maintaining a short or neutral bias. Technical analyst Doctor Profit is more pessimistic—breaking below the key 100-week moving average confirms a bear market, with a new cycle bottom possibly between $54,000 and $44,000. Analyst Ali Charts predicts a potential decline to $42,256 if key levels are lost. Rekt Capital cites historical patterns, noting that the bearish crossover of the 21-week and 50-week EMAs echoes past bear market signals.

Ethereum Breaks Below $2,200, Technical Bottom Signals Emerge

Ethereum faces similar severe tests. Its main asset briefly broke below the $2,200 psychological level during the market downturn. Ali Charts points out that the $2,100–$2,250 range has been a key support over the past two years, but plans to “buy the dip” around $1,800 suggest the bottom may be even lower. CJ analysis believes the $2,100 support is less solid than imagined, expecting further decline to $1,800–$2,000 to establish a firm bottom.

Yet, amidst extreme pessimism, some technical positives stand out. Michaël van de Poppe observed that Ethereum and most tokens’ daily RSI has fallen below 30, a classic bottom indicator. More encouragingly, his historical comparisons suggest that although Ethereum has dropped 31% now, it could see a rebound of over 300% relative to Bitcoin afterward. This historical rhythm offers a glimmer of hope for bottom investors.

Altcoins broadly follow suit, with SOL, BNB, XRP, and others falling 4–6% intraday. The SocialFi sector remains relatively resilient, serving as one of the few safe havens in the crypto market.

Accelerating Capital Outflows, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs Hit Record Net Outflows

Institutional actions most accurately reflect market sentiment. As of January 30, Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows of $1.49 billion this week, the second-highest weekly outflow ever. Behind this is a collective retreat by institutions amid panic. Ethereum ETFs also saw net outflows of $327 million this week. Other major assets’ ETFs followed suit: XRP ETF outflow of $52.26 million, SOL ETF outflow of $2.45 million.

These figures indicate that during extreme panic, institutional investors tend to exit en masse—yet history shows that large-scale outflows often mean the market is deeply undervalued, with seeds of a rebound already planted.

Liquidation Waves and Fear/Greed Index at Extreme Levels, Hidden Bottom Signals

The Fear & Greed Index dropped to 14, indicating “extreme fear.” This sentiment indicator has reached historic lows. More visually, liquidation data shows that on February 2 alone, 160,112 traders were liquidated globally, totaling $648 million—$216 million in Bitcoin, $221 million in Ethereum, and $29.5 million in Solana.

Such massive liquidations are essentially a market “self-cleaning” process. Highly leveraged positions are wiped out amid volatility, creating space for a potential rebound. Historically, when fear indices hit these levels and liquidation volumes are this large, the bottom is often near.

Multiple Analysts Focus on Rebound Prospects, $84,000 as Key Watchpoint

While bearish views dominate, some analysts remain open to short-term rebounds. Trader Killa predicts that in the coming weeks, the CME futures gap near $84,000 will be filled—this gap is a key target for bulls. AlphaBTC expects a rebound to $87,000–$88,000 in February, followed by a deep retest at month’s end, a pattern not uncommon historically.

Macro analyst Raoul Pal offers an insightful perspective, linking Bitcoin’s decline to macro liquidity flows rather than intrinsic crypto issues. If macro liquidity bottoms and rebounds, Bitcoin—being highly sensitive to liquidity—may lead the recovery. CNBC’s Jim Cramer is more direct, suggesting Bitcoin buyers may flood in, pushing prices back toward $82,000.

Crypto Chase offers a trading outlook: Bitcoin could see a strong rebound in the $60,000–$65,000 range, aligning with the bottom zone bulls are eyeing.

Large Unlocks and Options Expiry, Future Market Variables

Beyond technical and sentiment signals, key upcoming events include large token unlocks—HYPE, BERA, XDC, among others. HYPE’s single-token unlock value is about $305 million, which could exert short-term pressure due to increased supply.

Options markets are also critical. Nearly $9.5 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are expiring soon, with the maximum pain point at $90,000 for Bitcoin—an important strike where traders’ interests clash. Price swings ahead of expiry tend to amplify, making this a focal point.

News of the White House summoning banks and crypto firms hints at potential regulatory shifts, which could impact long-term confidence. Strategy’s Q4 2025 earnings report and video conference, along with its holdings of over 712,000 BTC, may influence market sentiment.

Bottom Consensus and Rebound Mechanisms

From multiple angles, signs of a bottom are emerging: extreme fear (index at lows), massive liquidations, ongoing capital outflows, technical bottom signals (RSI<30), and analyst consensus on a support zone ($54,000–$75,000). The convergence of these phenomena often indicates the market has entered an extreme undervaluation phase.

Bullish hopes for CME gap fill ($84,000), macro liquidity rebound, options expiry-driven volatility, and token unlocks’ fundamental re-evaluation could all serve as triggers for a rebound. For investors, the key is not to precisely predict the bottom but to recognize that the bottom features are already forming and to prepare for a potential rebound.