Hong Kong Property Market Recovery Survey: Owners Counteroffer, Buyers Chase Prices, Some Units Appreciate Over One Million in 10 Months

This article is from Times Finance, written by Liang Zhengyu.

Hong Kong’s property market is still experiencing a strong rebound.

Last year, in mid-year, Liu Yang (pseudonym), who was working in Hong Kong, decided to buy a home. At that time, the real estate agent still had a large number of listings. In a lively community, they could tour one building after another.

“At least eleven or twelve vacant units were available for viewing,” Liu Yang recalled. The layouts were similar, the renovations mostly the same, and after seeing so many, it became somewhat monotonous. Prices, however, still “were a bit high.”

At that time, market sentiment remained cautious. Some people mentioned losses from buying at high points in 2021, while others were confident that prices would continue to fall—many argued that prices could drop another 500,000 to 1 million HKD. Liu Yang described the market then as “factually heating up, but sentiment lagged behind.”

Less than a year later, the market had changed. Recently, when Liu Yang accompanied a friend to revisit that community, the number of listings had noticeably decreased. To understand the layouts, they could only look at rental units “to see the floor plans and views.” Units listed for sale were turning over very quickly—“sold within two or three days,” and there were even cases where sellers temporarily raised their prices—agreeing on a price one day, only for the owner to “counteroffer” the next day, asking for a little more.

“Hong Kong’s market is so small that a little capital can heat up the market,” she said.

Image source: Visual China

With the implementation of the Hong Kong SAR Government’s “withdrawal of the stamp duty” policy, continuous rent increases, and some demand returning, buyers’ attitudes are shifting from cautious waiting to tentative market entry.

According to data from the Hong Kong Land Registry, the total number of property sale agreements in Hong Kong reached 80,702 in 2025, an 18.72% increase year-on-year, the highest in nearly four years.

Amid these changes, some who previously only considered renting are now reassessing the possibility of buying. Liu Yang is one of them.

Over the past two years, she viewed nearly 100 rental listings and experienced rent increases of nearly 20%. After two months of house hunting, she finally chose a new development near the University of Hong Kong on Hong Kong Island. “Signing the contract was quite nerve-wracking, but even if prices continue to fall, the risk is within my capacity—I’m not risking losing my entire down payment.”

In Liu Yang’s view, good assets always seem expensive now but become relatively cheaper over a longer cycle. Data from the Hong Kong SAR Government’s Rating and Valuation Department shows that in January 2026, the private residential price index in Hong Kong was 301.4, a new high since June 2024, and has risen for eight consecutive months.

Image source: Pexels

Rent prices surged by 20%, prompting mainland professionals to buy homes

Initially, Liu Yang had no plans to buy property in Hong Kong. A few years ago, she moved from Shanghai to Hong Kong as a fintech professional under the Talent Scheme.

“Hong Kong’s property prices are very high, and during the ‘full stamp duty’ phase, non-permanent residents had to pay an additional 30% stamp duty. After the ‘withdrawal,’ it felt more like an investment channel for high-net-worth individuals worldwide, and I clearly wasn’t one of them.” Sensitive to numbers, Liu Yang is also known among friends as the “Hui Zhi Lake Mathematician”—someone who buys, calculates property prices, and invests in Shanghai’s Zhangjiang Hui Zhi Lake area.

However, two years of renting changed her perspective.

“From my first viewing to the end of a two-year lease, rent increased by at least 20%,” Liu Yang said. Many of her colleagues faced rent hikes when renewing leases, often at the landlord’s request.

In Hong Kong, residential leases typically last two years, known as “one-year fixed + one-year renewal.” “Some landlords wait until the entire lease ends before raising rent, while others increase rent immediately after the fixed term.”

Beyond rent hikes, an unpleasant experience also made her uneasy about the rental market.

While searching for a roommate, she encountered a “check scam.” The scammer impersonated a tenant, paid a deposit or rent with a check that was intentionally written for more than the actual amount, then requested a refund of the difference due to a mistake or overpayment, exploiting the time lag in check clearance to steal cash before the bank confirmed the check was invalid and returned it.

“Although I didn’t lose money, the terrible house-hunting experience and rising rents were major reasons I started considering buying.”

By the end of June 2025, Liu Yang began viewing properties. Her needs were clear: short-term residence, with plans to rent out or sell after leaving Hong Kong. Two months later, she chose a new development near HKU on Hong Kong Island. “I’ve never lived on Hong Kong Island, but I knew rents there are quite resilient, and with HKU nearby, many mainland students come to study, so demand is stable and their paying ability is strong.”

Location, amenities, and price were all relatively certain. From viewing to signing, it took only five hours.

She was still somewhat nervous at signing. On one hand, when she visited the sales office, only her group was there—market activity didn’t seem as hot as expected; on the other hand, her purchase was about 5-10% above a nearby oversubscribed project.

However, she chose a small unit with a lower total price, and the rent could fully cover the monthly mortgage, making her feel the risk was manageable.

Centaline Property’s Asia-Pacific Vice Chairman and Residential Department President, Chen Yongjie, pointed out that benefiting from Hong Kong’s interest rate cut cycle starting in late 2025, along with residential rental yields generally exceeding 3.5% (annualized), makes “owning a home more cost-effective than renting,” attracting both owner-occupiers and investors.

Goldman Sachs’ report also indicated that from 2023 to 2025, Hong Kong residential rents increased by about 20%, and with mortgage rates falling, more residents might switch from renting to buying, providing structural support to the housing market.

Additionally, data from the Hong Kong Legislative Council Secretariat shows that Hong Kong’s housing affordability index has fallen from 75% in mid-2023 to 56% in Q3 2025, the lowest in nearly ten years, approaching the average of the past two decades.

In some cases, monthly mortgage payments are even lower than rent.

Centaline’s “Mortgage Cheaper Than Rent” listings column features 101 units for sale across Hong Kong Island, Kowloon, Eastern New Territories, and Western New Territories. For example, a 368 sq ft one-bedroom unit at The View on Hong Kong Island has a monthly mortgage of about HKD 19,000, while rent is around HKD 20,000; a three-bedroom unit at Hoi Tin Court in Kowloon has a monthly mortgage of about HKD 25,300, with rent around HKD 26,000.

Image of Centaline’s “Mortgage Cheaper Than Rent” units

Resale prices have stabilized and rebounded, with owners seeing over HKD 1 million in appreciation over 10 months

In fact, before Liu Yang made her firm decision, the Hong Kong market had already shown some positive signs.

In September 2024, Sun Hung Kai Properties launched the first phase of TINHOM·Tianxi, with an average price of about HKD 19,668 per sq ft, 6.7% to 30% below new developments in the area, the lowest in nearly seven years.

The low-price strategy quickly ignited the market. After the first price list was announced, the project received over 29,000 bids, with an oversubscription of more than 141 times, and sold out on the first day. In three months, the sales of Tianxi·Tian Phase 1 exceeded HKD 11 billion, making it the highest-selling single phase in Hong Kong that year.

The second phase also sold very well, with initial listings in late 2025 attracting over 33 times the number of buyers.

As the market warmed, resale prices of Tianxi·Tian also began to rise. In January, a two-bedroom unit sold for HKD 13.5 million, about 34% higher than the previous transaction.

The price movements of Tianxi·Tian are seen by many industry insiders as a window into Hong Kong’s property trend.

Image source: Visual China

Chen Yongjie pointed out that since late 2025, Hong Kong’s second-hand property prices have rebounded. The Centaline City Index (CCL) rose from a low of 134.89 in March 2025 to 149.41 in February this year, an increase of about 11%.

Other new developments and the secondary market also confirm this trend.

In early March, when MTR and Wheelock & Co. jointly opened the exhibition hall for the South Bank project DEEP WATER SOUTH on Hong Kong Island, over 2,000 people visited, including finance, medical professionals, and established local families.

CK Asset’s Blue Coast launched 25 three-bedroom units on March 1, with an average price of about HKD 26,339 per sq ft. Despite developers raising prices and reducing maximum discounts, overall prices increased by 5%, and all units sold out on the opening day, bringing in about HKD 500 million.

The secondary market remains active. A three-bedroom unit of 531 sq ft at Yinghai Yufeng in Ma On Shan recently sold for HKD 8.2 million. Centaline regional manager Hu Yaozu said the original owner bought it in May 2025 for HKD 6.39 million, holding it for only 10 months, with a profit of HKD 1.81 million, a 28% appreciation.

Looking back, Liu Yang realized her purchase price was also relatively low in the market. “At that time, everyone was still quite pessimistic, but now looking back, it’s already starting to heat up.”

“By 2026, the rise in property prices will be like a runaway horse,” Chen Yongjie predicted. “This year, prices could increase by 15%, and if positive factors continue to unfold, there’s even a possibility of exceeding expectations.”

New developments are active, but prices remain about 20% below peak levels.

Despite signs of market recovery, Chen Yongjie said overall prices are still about 22% below the 2021 highs.

Meanwhile, market segmentation remains clear, with some high-end properties not yet fully recovered.

For example, a 625 sq ft three-bedroom unit in Fo Tan recently sold for HKD 11.2 million. The original owner bought it in 2022 for HKD 12.88 million, and after about four years, sold at a loss of HKD 1.68 million.

A luxury unit of 1,479 sq ft in Ho Man Tin sold for HKD 44 million, with the owner losing about HKD 9.22 million after six years.

In contrast, new developments are more active.

In the first two months of this year, about 3,880 new residential units were sold in Hong Kong, a significant increase of over 90%. Since February 2025, monthly transactions have exceeded 1,000 for 13 consecutive months.

Chen Yongjie expects at least 5 to 6 new projects to launch simultaneously in March, involving about 3,000 units, with first-hand transactions possibly returning to 2,000 units, continuing the record of 14 months of “thousand-unit” sales.

Regarding supply, Hong Kong’s new home inventory has fallen to about 16,500 units, nearly 40% below the peak. With reduced inventory pressure, developers are adopting different strategies in various areas. Scarcity areas are reducing discounts or even raising prices, while areas with more supply still attract buyers with “low opening prices.”

New World Development’s Tsim Sha Tsui project Zen Yue and Yongtai’s new project in the North District, Yun Xiang, announced their first price lists in early March. The former’s discounted average price is about HKD 21,008 per sq ft, slightly higher than nearby new projects but still below the inventory units in the city; the latter offers lower entry prices, with an average of about HKD 13,974 per sq ft, described by the developer as a “water level price,” meaning they set low initial prices to leave room for future increases.

Industry experts generally expect Hong Kong’s property market to continue rebounding this year.

Guo Ziwei, Chief Manager of Cheung Kong Property’s Business Department, predicts that 2024 will see a cycle of rising prices and transaction volume, with annual price increases possibly reaching 10%.

Shih Wing-chung, founder of Centaline Group, believes that Hong Kong’s property prices could accelerate further this year, with annual growth approaching 20%. In just the first two months, some popular estates’ prices have already rebounded 10% to 15%, significantly faster than previous expectations.

However, Liu Yang remains uncertain about the future of Hong Kong’s property market. “This market largely depends on a small group of very wealthy buyers—whether they have better options for their funds. If capital flows into other assets, the real estate market could change again.”