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[US Stock Market Close] Trump: The war is almost over, oil prices plummeted immediately, Dow Jones surged 239 points (updating continuously)
President Trump of the United States stated in an interview with foreign media that the war is almost over. The conflict has been very comprehensive; Iran has no navy, no communications, and no air force. Their missiles are now only sporadic, and their drones have been destroyed everywhere, including their drone manufacturing plants.
Check out the US stock market close:
“If you look, they have nothing left. In military terms, there’s nothing remaining,” Trump said. The U.S. can do a lot in the Strait of Hormuz and has threatened Iran that any obstruction of the waterway will have consequences. “They’ve shot all they can shoot; they’d better not play any tricks, or it will be the end of their country… If they do anything bad, it will be Iran’s end, and you will never hear that name again.” Trump also said the strait is currently open, claiming ships are entering, but he is still “considering taking control of it.”
On the same afternoon, the U.S. Department of Defense posted on X (formerly Twitter): “We are just getting started,” and “We will show no mercy.”
Following the statement, oil prices plummeted, and US stocks turned higher. Brent crude fell 1.5% to $91.2, and NY crude dropped 3.4% to $88.
The Dow initially fell 886 points, reaching a low of 46,615; the S&P 500 dropped 1.5%, hitting 6,636; and the Nasdaq also fell 1.5%, down to 22,061.
The Dow recovered to close up 239 points at 47,740; the S&P 500 rose 0.8% to 6,795; and the Nasdaq increased 1.4% to 22,695.
Brent crude initially surged nearly 30%, approaching $120 per barrel. As a result, G7 finance ministers held an emergency meeting to discuss a coordinated release of the International Energy Agency (IEA) strategic petroleum reserves to address the spike in oil prices after the Gulf conflict.
French Finance Minister Roland Lescure stated that the G7 has not yet decided on releasing emergency oil reserves following the US-Israel war on Iran.
After participating in an online G7 finance ministers’ meeting in Brussels, Lescure told reporters, “Our consensus is that, if necessary, all means will be used to stabilize the market, including the possible release of reserves.” He noted that governments are closely monitoring the situation, and currently, Europe and the U.S. have not experienced supply issues.
Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said, “The IEA has called on countries to coordinate the release of oil reserves. Given the current situation, the G7 has agreed to continue closely monitoring energy markets and take necessary measures to support global energy supply, including releasing oil reserves.” He added that the OECD, World Bank, and IMF officials are also participating in the discussions. The G7 will soon hold a meeting of energy ministers to discuss further actions.
As of 2022, IEA member countries’ emergency oil reserves under government control are estimated to exceed 1.2 billion barrels, mostly crude oil. According to IEA regulations, all member countries must maintain emergency reserves equivalent to at least 90 days of net imports. These government-controlled stocks must ensure that the country can sustain at least three months under normal consumption.
Market stabilized, with the US dollar index down 0.1% at 98.877, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falling to 4.107%. Gold prices narrowed their decline to 0.6%, at $5,138 per ounce, while silver rose 2.5% to $86.63.
The U.S. military continues to demonstrate its strength. According to BBC reports, U.S. B-52 and B-1 heavy bombers have gathered at Royal Air Force Fairford in the UK. Three B-52 bombers landed in a single day, marking the first appearance of B-52s in the UK since the conflict erupted.
The B-52 is a typical “forward-deployed” U.S. strategic bomber, a strong sign that large-scale air campaigns are imminent or that the current conflict may escalate sharply. As a heavily armed “old yellow cow,” once enemy air defenses are weakened, B-52s can deliver large quantities of conventional ground-attack munitions, conducting destructive, sustained strikes on enemy infrastructure, industrial targets, or large ground forces.
Additionally, U.S. stock markets have entered daylight saving time, opening an hour earlier at 9:30 p.m. Hong Kong time.
Swiss bank UBS pointed out that the oil market has entered a panic state, with prices soaring into triple digits, driven mainly by market sentiment, as the conflict itself has not shown any substantial major changes so far. The current supply disruptions are primarily due to ships avoiding the Strait of Hormuz out of caution, causing trade blockages rather than military blockades. However, it is expected that in the coming week and beyond, Middle Eastern oil supplies could face up to 75% shutdown.
The bank said it will continue to closely monitor the situation. Currently, there are no significant damages to energy infrastructure, and Iran’s military strength appears to be weakening. A solution to ensure trade around the Strait of Hormuz through safeguarding shipping remains feasible. Given the fog of war, it reaffirms a neutral stance on oil and natural gas, maintaining the basic expectation that energy prices will peak at current or slightly higher levels.
Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating. For details, see: Next page
Market Trends:
【18:20】Dow futures down 492 points, Nasdaq futures down 1.1%. Oil prices surge over 10%, breaking $100. Market opens an hour earlier for daylight saving time.
【12:07】Dow futures down 1,006 points, at 46,511; S&P 500 futures down 130 points, at 6,613; Nasdaq futures down 542 points, or 2.2%, at 24,127.
【12:07】【Iran Crisis】Iran conflict impacts financial markets. Senior strategist Yardeni: The probability of a crash in US stocks before year-end increases to 35%.
【11:15】【700】Tencent reportedly plans to acquire Warner Bros. via Paramount, exploring a deal worth hundreds of millions of dollars.
【10:33】【Iran Crisis】Oil prices break $100, with NY crude soaring 30%. Major Middle Eastern oil producers cut output.
【10:20】【Iran Crisis】Oil prices spike, dragging down Asia-Pacific stocks. “Black Monday” in Japan and South Korea, both down over 7%. South Korea reportedly considers implementing oil price caps.
【09:56】【Iran Crisis】JPMorgan: Middle Eastern oil capacity expected to decrease by 4 million barrels per day by next weekend.
【09:50】【Iran Crisis】Schroders’ Alex Tedder: Oil may reach $100. “I won’t reduce energy stocks in the next two or three years.”
【08:17】【Iran Crisis】Gold drops over 2%, testing $5,000. Oil surge heightens inflation concerns.
【07:30】【Iran Crisis】Black Monday begins. Oil prices rise 20%, surpassing $111. Trump: Small price to pay. Dow futures plunge 1,112 points (updating continuously).
【07:30】【Global Outlook】Focus on Middle East conflict and US inflation data. US markets open an hour earlier at 9:30 p.m. Hong Kong time.
【07:30】Concerns over oil supply disruptions and worse-than-expected US employment data caused a major sell-off last Friday. Dow once fell 945 points to 47,009; the “fear index” VIX spiked 21.6% to 28.88. The Dow closed down 453 points, S&P 500 fell 1.33%, Nasdaq dropped 1.59%.
Check out the US stock market close:
Last week’s US stock market movements. For details, see: 【US Market Close】 Iran Fires Missiles at “Lincoln,” Brent Oil Over $92, Job Data Weak, Dow Down 453, Nasdaq Down 1.6%