Long-term Bitcoin investors keep selling off; a brief rise above $90,000 still can't change the downward trend

Crypto News December 18 — (Editor: Ma Lan) Bitcoin is entering a sustained downtrend, with one key reason being that long-term holders are still continuously selling the token.

According to a report from K33 Research, compared to the beginning of 2023, the amount of Bitcoin that has not entered the trading market for at least two years has decreased by 1.6 million coins, worth about $140 billion. In 2025 alone, nearly $300 billion worth of Bitcoin, after being dormant for over a year, will re-enter circulation.

Meanwhile, the market’s capacity to absorb these re-entering Bitcoins is gradually weakening. The ETFs that absorbed most of the Bitcoin over the past year have now shifted to net outflows, and retail traders’ enthusiasm is also at a low point.

Chris Newhouse, head of research at Ergonia, pointed out that the market is experiencing a slow decline characterized by continuous spot selling and insufficient buying liquidity. This creates a gradual decline that is harder to reverse than a capitulation driven by leverage.

Long-term consolidation

On Wednesday, Bitcoin briefly rose to $90,000, but traders believe this was due to the liquidation of a large number of short positions. Subsequently, Bitcoin resumed its downward trend. As of press time, Bitcoin is fluctuating above $86,000.

Vetle Lunde, senior analyst at K33, said that unlike previous cycles, this Bitcoin rally was not driven by altcoin trading or protocol incentives, but by abundant liquidity from US ETF demand. This allowed early holders to profit at six-figure prices and significantly reduced Bitcoin’s concentration among large investors.

Giorgii Verbitskii, founder of cryptocurrency investment platform TYMIO, predicts that Bitcoin is likely to consolidate for a long period, with a possibility of dropping to $70,000 or even $60,000.

However, Lunde believes that based on historical on-chain fund flow analysis, as the scale of Bitcoin re-entering circulation approaches a certain threshold, the selling pressure from long-term holders may soon end.

He pointed out that the selling pressure from long-term holders seems to be nearing saturation, with about 20% of Bitcoin supply reactivated over the past two years. He expects that from 2026 onwards, selling from early investors will decrease.

(Edited by: Wen Jing)