Kioxia’s monster Q4 outlook sends memory stocks soaring again

SelfRugger

2026-03-05 04:36:47

Kioxia’s monster Q4 outlook sends memory stocks soaring again

Senad Karaahmetovic

Thu, February 12, 2026 at 6:52 PM GMT+9 2 min read

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Investing.com – Memory stocks extended their rally Thursday after flash memory supplier Kioxia (TYO:285A) delivered sharply stronger-than-expected guidance and Micron executives struck an upbeat tone on demand yesterday, reinforcing expectations of tight supply conditions through 2026.

Kioxia reported fiscal third-quarter revenue of ¥543 billion, slightly ahead of estimates of ¥541 billion and up 20% year over year. Adjusted operating profit came in at ¥144.7 billion, broadly in line with expectations, while adjusted gross margin reached 40% excluding JV-related items.

The bigger surprise came in the outlook. For the fourth quarter, Kioxia guided to revenue of ¥890 billion at the midpoint, far above consensus of ¥648.2 billion. Adjusted net income is seen at ¥340 billion versus estimates of ¥164 billion, while adjusted operating profit is projected at ¥485 billion compared with expectations of ¥248.8 billion.

Kioxia also confirmed that its entire NAND flash production capacity for 2026 is already sold out, underscoring tight market conditions. In the third quarter, SSD and storage revenue rose 7.8% year over year to ¥300.4 billion, while smart device sales climbed 59.1% to ¥186.3 billion.

“I’m structurally still very positive on the NAND market, with expectations that sell side ASP assumptions for the rest of 2026 will need to be revised up…a lot in Japan," said Joseph Wrenn, Asia Tech Specialist at Mizuho.

The guidance triggered broad gains across the memory complex. Shares of Micron (NASDAQ:MU) rose another 3.4% in premarket trading after adding 9.9% in the previous session. SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK), which relies heavily on Kioxia for NAND manufacturing and supply, gained a further 6.2% premarket after jumping 10.7% yesterday.

In Asia, Kioxia ended the day 12.4% higher, while major memory suppliers Samsung (KS:005930) and SK Hynix (KS:000660) saw their shares advance 6.4% and 3.3%, respectively.

Speaking at a Wolfe conference yesterday, Micron CFO Mark Murphy highlighted accelerating shipments of its latest high-bandwidth memory product.

“We have been in high volume production on HBM4. We’ve commenced customer shipments of HBM4. And we see shipment volumes ramping successfully this calendar, Q1,” Murphy said. “This is a quarter earlier than we mentioned during our December earnings call.”

Murphy added that Micron’s HBM4 delivers performance exceeding 11 gigabits per second and said the company is “highly confident in our HBM4 product performance and quality and reliability.” He described the broader backdrop as robust, saying the company’s “business is on an extraordinary trajectory” with demand “significantly higher than our ability to supply.”

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“We continue to expect supply demand to be tight beyond 26. We’re doing everything we can to plan and invest appropriately for our customers’ needs over time,” he said.

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