SOL and Cunha Ascendente: Where Could the Price Go From Here?

Solana has dropped dramatically since Q3 2025, when it was trading near US$202. Today, with SOL priced around US$89.94, traders face a very different reality. The ascending wedge pattern that developed on the 4-hour chart remains a relevant technical indicator to guide future movements, even as the more pessimistic scenario materializes.

The significant decline of SOL since that period reinforces why understanding technical patterns and Fibonacci levels is essential for traders trying to identify potential stabilization points or continuation of declines.

What Is an Ascending Wedge and Why Does It Matter for SOL?

An ascending wedge is a bearish technical pattern that forms when prices advance while trendlines converge, creating a progressively narrower funnel. This compression signals weakening momentum: higher highs and higher lows tighten until a breakdown occurs.

For Solana, this wedge began forming in June 2025, when SOL was still trading at significantly higher levels. The pattern indicated caution even then, and subsequent months confirmed the technical warning. When the wedge resolves, the move is often sharp, which explains the current scenario.

The importance of this formation lies in the fact that traders can use the wedge’s historical behavior to anticipate possible support levels where the price might stabilize or resistance where further advances could be halted. Even in confirmed bearish market conditions, these levels remain relevant as reference points.

Critical Support Levels: The Next Milestones for Solana

When the wedge breaks down under selling pressure, Fibonacci retracements map zones where the price could find support or trigger cascading declines. These analyses remain valuable tools even after significant moves have occurred.

Historically, the 0.786 retracement level (around US$190.99 in the previous scenario) would serve as immediate support. A break below that would expose the 0.618 level at approximately US$177.29, providing the next support zone. For deeper declines, the 0.5 retracement near US$167.24 would be expected, followed by the 0.382 level around US$157.39.

These zones should not be ignored, as they often coincide with historical supports where price action may pause. A prolonged selling wave could push SOL even lower, down to the 0.236 retracement near US$143.83.

On the upside, if the price recovers, resistance would likely be near US$216.77, the same zone that marked the wedge’s peak. Reaching these levels could increase volatility as the market reassesses momentum.

Market Scenarios: How Traders Should React

With SOL well below the levels observed six months ago, two main scenarios guide analysis. First, the price could find support at one of the Fibonacci levels and establish a base for medium-term recovery. Long-term traders watch whether these levels hold interest from buyers.

Second, Solana could experience a continued breakdown, especially if key supports fail to hold the selling pressure. In that case, cascading moves toward progressively lower levels become more likely. The overall technical structure remains tilted toward this more bearish scenario.

Traders monitoring the ascending wedge on shorter timeframes look for reversal signals or confirmation of declines. If the price consolidates and regains momentum above certain levels, technical tension could resolve differently. Until then, caution prevails.

Conclusion: The Ascending Wedge Continues as a Guide

Even with Solana moving significantly since Q3 2025, the ascending wedge and Fibonacci levels remain useful technical landmarks for navigating SOL’s volatility. Traders face a market that has validated many previous technical alerts, and now the question is where the price might stabilize or where additional accelerations could occur.

The accuracy of these levels will depend on how market sentiment evolves and broader macroeconomic factors. Nonetheless, for those employing technical analysis, these levels remain essential reference points.