Localities anchor the "15th Five-Year Plan" for high-quality development; new economic layouts are tailored to local conditions

Securities Times Reporter Jiang Lan

As the provincial two sessions conclude one after another in 2026, the economic development roadmaps for all 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) are fully released. In the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan, the overall GDP growth targets for local economies in 2026 are pragmatic and steady, reflecting respect for economic laws and a focus on high-quality development. Regions are closely aligned with the high-quality development requirements of the 15th Five-Year Plan, tailoring their layouts for new productive forces such as artificial intelligence, low-altitude economy, and new energy. Quantified tasks for transforming and upgrading traditional industries are clearly defined, and promoting consumption has become an important lever.

At the same time, “investment in people” runs through social welfare policies, with detailed and quantified goals in areas such as elderly care, childcare, education, healthcare, and urban renewal. Policies are more results-oriented, laying a solid foundation for stable economic operation and high-quality growth nationwide.

Pragmatic and proactive economic growth targets

“Pragmatic” is a frequently mentioned keyword among market institutions analyzing the 2026 economic growth expectations at the provincial level. According to estimates from multiple agencies, the weighted GDP growth targets for all 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in 2026 are about 5.0%, a decrease from 2025, with more provinces setting targets below 5.0% compared to 2025.

Specifically, among the 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities), only Jiangxi has raised its economic growth target, from 5.0% in 2025 to a range of 5.0%–5.5% in 2026; twelve provinces including Jiangsu, Shandong, Sichuan, Shanghai, Beijing, Hebei, and Hainan maintain their growth targets; while Guangdong, Zhejiang, Henan, Hubei, Fujian, Hunan, Chongqing, and others have lowered their targets or adjusted them within a range.

Wen Bin, Chief Economist at Minsheng Bank, stated that overall, the adjustment of local growth targets reflects respect for economic laws and highlights the orientation toward high-quality development. Differentiated target setting promotes regional coordination and provides a solid guarantee for the stable operation of the national economy.

A research report from China Galaxy Securities believes this demonstrates a more pragmatic approach to economic work. 2026 marks the beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan, and downplaying the emphasis on economic growth targets can create more space for high-quality development. Meanwhile, major economic provinces like Shandong, Zhejiang, and Guangdong are all striving for better results, showing a sense of responsibility.

Developing the “new economy” according to local conditions

The “new economy,” centered on new technologies and new models, continues to grow, consolidating new drivers of high-quality economic development. China Galaxy Securities pointed out that artificial intelligence, as a general-purpose technology leading the fourth technological revolution, is a key focus for regional layout.

Guided by the principle of adapting to local conditions, regions are leveraging their unique strengths to develop differentiated industrial layouts. For example, Beijing is implementing the “AI+” initiative to build a global digital economy benchmark city; Hebei is deepening the “AI+” initiative by supporting the development of Baoding’s national data annotation base and creating high-performance computing hubs in Langfang and Zhangjiakou; Hubei is implementing “AI+” to develop three major computing power circles in Wuhan, Yichang, and Xiangtan.

Regions such as Zhejiang, Liaoning, and Guangdong have specifically set development goals for artificial intelligence. Zhejiang is focusing on corpus construction and trusted data space innovation; Guangdong aims to accelerate the strengthening of the entire industrial chain; Liaoning emphasizes green computing centers, data annotation bases, and data industry clusters, which are relatively infrastructure-oriented.

In terms of industry sectors, the mention of embodied intelligence sub-sectors has increased significantly compared to 2025. Aerospace, low-altitude economy, new energy, new materials, and biomedicine are also key focus areas for regional deployment.

Wen Bin said this fully demonstrates the implementation of the central government’s “15th Five-Year Plan” recommendations, including “accelerating high-level technological independence and self-reliance, leading the development of new productive forces,” and “cultivating and expanding emerging and future industries.”

Quantified goals for transforming and upgrading traditional industries are a notable highlight. For example, Shanghai aims to promote intelligent transformation of key industries with over 50 advanced smart factories; Shandong plans to implement 3,000 technological renovation projects with investments exceeding 20 million yuan each.

Many provinces prioritize “promoting consumption” as a top or second key task. China Galaxy Securities pointed out that enhancing residents’ consumption capacity, focusing on “service consumption” and “new consumption,” and optimizing policies for “two new” (new infrastructure and new consumption) are main themes in regional efforts to boost consumption.

“Investment in people” runs through social welfare policies

The “15th Five-Year Plan” explicitly states that “investment in material and investment in people are closely integrated,” a point reiterated at the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference.

In the 2026 provincial two sessions, regions have made “investment in people” the core guiding principle for social welfare work, with specific deployments in childcare, education, healthcare, employment, and elderly care. By refining public services and improving social security, they aim to activate consumption potential.

Zhao Wei, Chief Economist at Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, said that the focus of social welfare work in 2026 is on employment, elderly care, education, healthcare, and housing. The “one old, one young” support system continues to upgrade: Zhejiang plans to add 10,000 elderly care workers and 30,000 senior college degrees; Beijing will build 20 new regional elderly care centers and add 5,000 home care beds; Henan is promoting the transformation of 1,000 township elderly care centers. Additionally, many regions are including childcare subsidies, birth cost reductions, and long-term care insurance (including coverage for severely disabled individuals in Zhejiang) in their social welfare projects.

In urban renewal efforts, to improve residents’ living environments, many regions have set quantifiable goals for renovating urban villages, old communities, and installing elevators. Shandong and Gansu plan to renovate 150,000 and 100,000 old urban households respectively; Zhejiang aims to deliver 150,000 units of affordable rental housing; Guangdong plans to start construction on 600 old community renovations.