Huatai Securities: Wind power demand in 2025 exceeds expectations; high prosperity in 2026 is expected to continue

Huatai Securities Research Report states that domestic installations may continue to be highly active in 2026, with the contribution of offshore wind expected to increase. Considering that the wind turbine bidding volume in 2025 remains high and that nearly 9GW of offshore wind projects are in the construction but not yet connected stage, we forecast that in 2026, domestic new installations will reach 130GW, including 120GW onshore and 10GW offshore. Looking ahead, supported by new demands such as direct green power connection and old-for-new upgrades, along with the gradual expansion of deep-sea wind, it is expected that wind power installations in China will maintain steady growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.

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Huatai | Power & New Energy: 2025 Wind Power Demand Surpasses Expectations, High Prosperity Expected to Continue in 2026

Key Points

2025 Review: Onshore wind installations exceeded expectations, offshore wind deployment accelerates

Onshore wind installations surpassed early-year expectations, while offshore wind demand needs to be further released. According to CWEA’s “2025 China Wind Power Lifting Capacity Statistics Brief,” China’s new installed capacity in 2025 reached 130.8GW, a 49.9% increase year-over-year, with onshore wind at 125.2GW (+53.4%)—higher than CWEA’s initial forecast of 95-100GW—mainly due to higher wind power mechanism electricity prices and developers favoring renewable projects; offshore wind was 5.6GW, flat year-over-year and below the early forecast of 10-15GW, mainly due to slower project start-up progress. The trend of larger turbines continued, with the average capacity of newly installed turbines in 2025 at 7.2MW, up 18.3% YoY, including 7.1MW onshore (+20.1%), driven by large-scale base projects, with 24.8% of turbines being 10MW or above (+19.6 percentage points); offshore turbines averaged 10.1MW, up 1.4% YoY.

Wind turbine competition landscape continues to improve. In 2025, 10 OEMs achieved new installations in China, down 3 from the previous year, with a CR7 (top 7 companies) market share of 91.8%, up 1.9 percentage points. Regionally, onshore wind market concentration increased, with CR7 at 92.2% (+1.2%), while offshore wind features a “few super-players” pattern: Goldwind added 2.1GW (+17.7%) and accounted for 37.3%, mainly from the Three Gorges Dafeng and Guoxin Dafeng projects; Mingyang Smart added 1.4GW (-6.9%), representing 24.4%, mainly due to slower project progress; Sany Heavy Energy achieved breakthroughs in offshore wind turbine shipments, with 0.16GW added.

Offshore wind exports accelerated, making overseas production an important option. In 2025, China exported 7.7GW of wind turbines, up 48.9% YoY, with Goldwind and Envision Energy exporting 3.9GW and 2.1GW respectively, accounting for 49.9% and 27.6%. Overseas manufacturing bases became key hubs for exports, with Envision Energy’s India, Sany Heavy Energy’s India, and Goldwind’s Brazil facilities producing 2.7GW, 0.2GW, and 0.1GW respectively.

2026 Outlook: Continued High Activity in Installations, Favoring OEMs, Offshore Wind, and Core Components

In 2026, domestic wind installations are expected to remain highly active, with offshore wind’s contribution likely to increase. Given that wind turbine bidding volumes in 2025 stayed high and nearly 9GW of offshore projects are under construction but not yet connected, we forecast that in 2026, China’s new installations will reach 130GW, including 120GW onshore and 10GW offshore. Looking further, supported by new demands such as direct green power connection and old-for-new upgrades, along with the gradual expansion of deep-sea wind, wind power installations during the 14th Five-Year Plan are expected to grow steadily.

We remain optimistic about the recovery of OEM profitability, offshore wind exports, and the leverage of core component manufacturers:

1. OEM Profitability Recovery: Increased delivery of onshore wind orders at higher prices, along with rising offshore and export shares, is expected to support OEM profit recovery. The hydrogen and ammonia business is opening a second growth curve.

2. Offshore Wind Export Growth: Recent geopolitical conflicts have disrupted energy supply in Europe. Offshore wind, as a high-quality local resource, benefits from government subsidies and support, likely leading to accelerated demand release. Europe’s domestic monopile capacity shortages may also spill over to domestic manufacturers.

3. Core Component Manufacturers’ Leverage: We estimate that demand-supply tightness in key components like main shaft bearings and casting main shafts will support capacity releases from leading suppliers, sustaining performance growth.

Risk factors include weaker-than-expected wind power demand, slower overseas market expansion, and increased market competition.

(Source: Yicai)