Iran's "early plan": A long-term war that could expand throughout the Middle East?

U.S.-Israel military strikes on Iran enter the third day, with ongoing escalation of conflict intensity. The global energy markets are experiencing the most severe shocks since 2022.

According to Xinhua News Agency, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani explicitly stated that Iran is prepared for a prolonged war and refuses to negotiate with the United States:

On the 2nd, Larijani posted multiple messages on social media saying Iran will not negotiate with the U.S… Trump’s “delusions” have dragged the Middle East into chaos, and now he’s worried about more U.S. military casualties. Trump has turned “America First” into “Israel First,” sacrificing American soldiers for Israel’s sake. “Iran is defending itself; the Iranian armed forces have not initiated an invasion.” Larijani also said Iran is ready for a long-term war, which is entirely different from the U.S. preparedness.

Meanwhile, Iran is executing a systematic strike plan personally devised by Supreme Leader Khamenei before his death, aimed at spreading conflict across the Middle East and disrupting global markets. Media sources citing an internal Iranian official reveal that this plan was formulated as early as June last year after Israel’s 12-day war against Iran, with core targets including energy facilities and regional aviation to pressure the U.S. and Israel.

According to CCTV News, on March 3, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Bagheri stated that Iran has not provoked war; the military actions taken are defensive and not aimed at neighboring countries. Bagheri said attacks on Iran violate international law and breach the UN Charter. Iran possesses the right to self-defense, and its current focus is on national defense rather than resuming negotiations. He emphasized that security in every regional country is vital, and Iran’s military actions target sources of aggression against Iran, not neighboring states.

As the conflict escalates, the Ras Tanura refinery operated by Saudi Aramco was hit by drones and has halted production urgently. Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG export facilities were also forced to shut down, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is nearly paralyzed. International oil prices surged by up to 9% in a single day, and European natural gas futures have increased over 60% in two trading days, marking the most volatile energy prices since the 2022 crisis.

Khamenei’s Lasting Strategy: Disrupt Global Markets and Force a Halt

Media reports indicate that Iran’s large-scale counterattack is not a hasty response but a carefully planned strategic deployment.

An internal Iranian official revealed that Khamenei and senior commanders began devising this “detailed” plan after Israel’s war against Iran ended in June last year. The plan includes targeting energy infrastructure and causing regional aviation disruptions, with the core goal of creating chaos in the Middle East and unsettling global markets to pressure the U.S. and Israel into stopping their attacks.

“We have no choice but to escalate the situation, ignite a big fire, and show everyone,” the official said. “When our red lines are crossed in ways that violate all international laws, we can no longer abide by the rules of the game.”

Although Khamenei was killed in the initial U.S.-Israel strikes—along with at least six senior Iranian military and intelligence officials, including the Defense Minister and top IRGC commander—the plan continues. Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, a member of Iran’s interim