[Red Envelope] The index is turning downward; beware of a pullback to 4082 points! Pre-market analysis and strategy for March 4

[Stock Forum]

The blogger has been a full-time trader for 6 years with 11 years of trading experience. Skilled at perceiving subtle changes in the market, with a forward-looking sense of market patterns. Good at analyzing the rhythm of indices, themes, and sentiment movements. The low-buying pattern is becoming more refined. Among bloggers proficient in low-buying in Tao County, I hold my own position! Stable monthly profit of 20%, compounded annually is 8 times. Stable monthly profit of 15%, compounded annually is 4 times. Stable monthly profit of 10%, compounded annually is 2 times. The blogger’s desire is not high; around 10% stable monthly profit is enough. Anything more is just gratitude for the market’s feedback! Maintaining a good mindset, treating trading as a joyful activity—why not enjoy it?

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3-4 Review and Pre-market Thought Process

1. Review

The Shanghai Composite Index opened slightly higher, oscillated and declined -1.19%, at 4132 points. It was temporarily pulled up to 4197 points, breaking the double top, then reversed sharply downward, closing at 4122 points, down -1.43%. Due to the rise of the three major oil companies and banks/insurance, the index was somewhat distorted. Shenzhen Component Index fell 3.07%, STAR Market dropped 5.21%, reflecting the true market condition. Trading volume was 3.13 trillion yuan, with increased selling pressure. All themes were mixed; 4,807 green stocks, 53 limit-down stocks, with over 8% decline, totaling 378. The first defense level at 4100 points may not hold; the zone between 4002 and 4082 points needs further confirmation.

Market conflicts dominated, especially the two-day surge of the three major oil companies setting a record, dragging other themes down. Natural gas, with 30 limit-ups; oil, 26 limit-ups; shipping, 9 limit-ups; methanol and talc, 3 limit-ups each. Token overseas, Yunnan Energy, TaiJia, initially hit the limit but failed to follow through due to severe conflict-driven capital inflows, leading to declines. Before close, Huawei Ascend Tian, Tuowei Information, and TaiJia attempted to buy in, trying to lock in tomorrow’s theme divergence. Token overseas leaves a suspense for tomorrow.

In the afternoon, the index reversed downward again, with panic selling. All themes mixed, some themes may be misjudged, such as minor metals, awaiting confirmation tomorrow. Given the index’s probability of testing the third support, and the two-day climax of conflict themes, tomorrow’s expectation is for differentiation: front runners advancing, laggards eliminated. Without early moves, further speculation is not recommended.

In such an environment, the index is likely to turn downward. Keep your hands steady, strictly control positions, and patiently wait for clarity.

2. Theme Thought Process

3. Natural gas, with momentum surpassing oil, is now leading. After-hours, European natural gas futures rose 21%, with a long upper shadow, a maximum increase of 50%. Yesterday afternoon, slight divergence; today still shows expectation differences. Note that positive factors are related to gas fields, not just selling gas. The gas source is water-based, so the theme is not entirely authentic—selling gas—but it can influence speculation. Observe whether the one-word limit orders continue strongly. At least three one-word limit-ups should appear. Focus on authentic gas field themes like Huayi Gas, Blue Flame Holdings, Guanghui Energy, New Natural Gas, etc. If risk-averse, can skip.

4. Oil, benefiting most from conflict themes. Leading stocks: Intercontinental Oil & Gas, Shandong Molong, normally not expected to buy at anticipated levels. For the trailing stocks, avoid relying on the 10cm breakout. For 20cm, target Tongyuan Petroleum, and see if the 200% trigger is positive or negative feedback. If positive, and no early move, there’s still a chance for a stubborn buy. Key stocks: Deshi Shares (comparable to Shandong Molong). Potential Hengxin and Xinjin Power rose 8-10%, indicating abnormal movement—no need to consider; focus instead on Tongyuan Petroleum.

5. Shipping, with sentiment spillover, not a key focus.

6. Token overseas, despite sector decline, showed resistance intraday. Yunnan Energy, TaiJia, once hit the limit, Runze Technology surged and turned red. Token overseas will still fluctuate; divergence in oil and gas may revert. DeepSeek V4 upcoming, Huawei Ascend 950/960 will continue to ferment. Huawei Ascend, Tuowei Information, TaiJia showed late buying; observe whether they sustain after opening tomorrow.

7. Rare metals, especially minor metals like tungsten, experienced the first divergence in the second phase of the main rise. The four major stocks remain below the 5-day moving average; whether the sector retreats remains to be seen. Other rare metals: Yunnan Geology, indium phosphide, and germanium concepts—especially US stocks like Axt, which surged 40 times in 10 months. Yunnan Geology still warrants attention.

8. Tuesday Case Review

Monday focused on domestic computing power, with Huasheng Tiancheng and Runze Technology unfollowed; Capital Online fully unfollowed, avoiding today’s shock. Capital Online, Xinwei Communication, Beijete suffered heavy losses today—luckily, they were flat. Beijete, with 1 level. Under no main line focus, managing positions with flat trades is also a strategy; “dusk to dawn.”

Focus on the idea: oil and gas opened beyond expectations. Trust early; with 4 levels of positions remaining, bidding on Huayi Gas and Deshi Shares with flat positions. Tuowei Information, with zero bias, watch at 1 level. Capital Online, deep water, at 0.5 level. Beijete, early morning, add at 0.5 level; afternoon, close positions—reverse T. Tongyuan Petroleum, close on bidding. Xianglu Tungsten, close on red. TaiJia, partial close after opening. Yunnan Geology, close after green in the afternoon. Xinwei Communication, close in the afternoon.

Today, I specifically discussed position allocation and flat trading strategies. I believe this will inspire friends who struggle to control their hands. When main lines are unfocused, dividing positions and trading flat can also control drawdowns.

There are no gods here—especially with low buying, hitting the mark every time—could you just go all-in every day?

Yesterday during the session, I said that Tongyuan Petroleum could be heavily held after the fact, but survival in a harsh market environment first depends on risk management. If yesterday’s big gains and quick conflict resolution with Persia had continued, most oil and gas stocks would have opened and fallen back. In reality, Persia’s counterattack exceeded expectations, and futures diverged before aligning again. Oil and gas, precious metals are heavily influenced by futures, beyond personal judgment.

So today, why can we increase positions in oil and gas? Persia’s counterattack was stronger than expected, and conflict is unlikely to end soon—moreover, the Hormuz Strait is blocked, Qatar’s natural gas production halted, European natural gas futures surged 40%. Trust early; high certainty. If there are large gas fields and reserves, Huayi Gas’s bidding points are not high—worth considering. Deshi Shares, comparable to Shandong Molong, with active stock behavior previously, also worth betting on.

This week, luckily no school XI class started—very wise. Stocks like Xianglu Tungsten, TaiJia, Tongyuan, Huayi Gas did not follow the trend, while Xinwei and Beijete did, but lacked position control—serious damage. At a turning point, I will post a main warning to alert risks!

Seeing this, friends, please give a like—at least 100 likes (to unlock the next pre-market post). If you find this helpful or agree, support the main post with 100 points (just 2 yuan) or give a boost!

Disclaimer:

Case review is solely for personal analysis and record-keeping!
Investment involves risks; trade cautiously. Plans are never faster than market changes; follow the market movements!
The article reflects my understanding of the market and is for personal sharing only!
Not investment advice; trade at your own risk!

Thanks to the previous article, to the friends supporting oil and gas, keep going, grateful for you. Wishing you daily limit-ups, accounts turning red like koi, no losses!