Barclays: UK clothing sales stagnate at the start of the year, retail differentiation intensifies

Investing.com – Barclays’ latest UK fashion market report shows a clear polarization: over the eight weeks ending February 1, total full-price sales declined by 0.1% year-over-year, but performance gaps among retailers have widened significantly. NEXT is accelerating and gaining substantial market share, Marks & Spencer is stabilizing, while several international and online-dominant retailers are losing momentum.

NEXT

NEXT is clearly the standout performer. During the recent eight weeks, full-price sales surged 18.8% year-over-year (compared to 3.8% previously), with total sales increasing 14.3%. Notably, its market share expanded by 140 basis points to 11.8%, the largest increase among peers.

This accelerated growth appears to be driven by improved inventory, resilient UK demand, and possibly gaining share from struggling competitors. Its momentum, breadth, and share growth make NEXT the strongest retailer in this group.

Marks & Spencer

M&S is improving but has yet to fully ramp up. Total sales grew 3.3% year-over-year (from 1.6%), with market share accelerating by 28 basis points.

However, full-price sales remain negative at -3.7%, though a significant improvement from the previous -10.3%. The company seems to be stabilizing after earlier difficulties, with online growth offsetting weakness in physical stores. The trajectory is positive, but pricing power is still being rebuilt.

Primark

Primark delivered steady but not spectacular results. Total sales grew 3.2% year-over-year, with full-price sales recovering from a prior decline to a slight increase (0.8%).

Market share increased modestly by 16 basis points. This performance indicates a relatively stable and resilient value positioning, though it hasn’t experienced the same accelerated growth as NEXT.

JD Sports

JD Sports’ total sales remain solid (up 10.9%), but its underlying structure is weakening. Full-price sales fell 8.4%, and share growth slowed to 25 basis points. The gap between total sales and full-price sales growth suggests increased promotional activity or product mix pressures. Compared to earlier periods, growth momentum has clearly slowed.

H&M

H&M faces significant pressure. Total sales declined 14.5%, with full-price sales down 16.8%. Market share shrank by 29 basis points. The sharp deterioration in revenue and share metrics indicates weak competitiveness and soft demand, making it one of the poorest performers in the data set.

Zara

Zara also weakened notably. Total sales fell 9.1%, full-price sales declined 12.2%, and market share dropped 15 basis points. After strong growth previously, the momentum has reversed. Data suggests a cyclical slowdown, and the trading environment in the UK market may be more challenging compared to domestic competitors.

Shein

Shein’s growth has sharply reversed. Total sales dropped 17.2%, though full-price sales remain slightly positive at 3.2%. Market share declined by 16 basis points. The slowdown from previous rapid growth indicates either normalization after rapid expansion or increased competition from other digital-first rivals.

Temu

Temu remains highly volatile. Total sales grew 7.7%, but full-price sales turned negative (-3.0%), and share growth slowed significantly to 4 basis points. While still expanding overall, growth appears increasingly reliant on promotions, and structural stability is less robust than in earlier periods.

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