Cotton Market Quotes Turn Soft as Traders Eye the Long Weekend

As the extended weekend approaches, cotton futures retreated with Friday’s session marking notable losses, signaling cautious sentiment ahead of the President’s Day break. The long weekend paused typical trading momentum, with March contracts managing to preserve gains despite the week’s closing pressure.

Cotton Futures Decline Ahead of the Extended Break

Cotton futures recorded Friday losses ranging from 15 to 20 points at the close, though March contracts managed to secure a 105 point gain for the week. The retreat reflects typical pre-holiday positioning as traders reduced exposure before the long weekend trading halt. This pattern underscores how market rhythms shift when calendar events compress trading windows.

The market’s quotes deteriorated gradually through the session, with March holding relatively firmer than the outer months—a common dynamic when nearby contracts retain more value during consolidation phases. The extended break reset market psychology, prompting some profit-taking in the final hours before the three-day closure.

Supporting Data and Market Structure

USDA’s export commitments stood at 8.034 million RB for cotton, representing 12% below the prior year’s pace. More significantly, this level tracks at only 71% of the USDA’s revised export projection, down considerably from the typical 88% average pace—a metric worth monitoring as demand indicators weaken.

CFTC positioning data revealed 3,856 contracts added to the spec net short position during the week ending February 10. Managed money maintained a net short position of 75,602 contracts as of Tuesday, reflecting continued defensive positioning.

ICE certified cotton stocks expanded by another 3,808 bales on February 12, reaching 106,040 bales total. The Cotlook A Index strengthened by 25 points on Thursday to 73.55 cents, offering a modest counterpoint to domestic futures weakness. The Adjusted World Price was trimmed to 49.39 cents/lb that afternoon, sliding 39 points week-over-week.

Price Movement Across the Curve

The Seam witnessed 15,617 bales transacted on February 12, averaging 57.90 cents/lb. Weekend quotes on active contracts showed consistent pressure:

• March 26 Cotton closed at 62.11, down 18 points
• May 26 Cotton closed at 64.13, down 20 points
• July 26 Cotton closed at 65.82, down 16 points

Crude oil futures declined 3 cents per barrel, closing at $62.81, while the US dollar index softened $0.067 to $96.770. These supporting markets influenced cotton sentiment as the long weekend approached, with traders reassessing positioning ahead of the break.