Nomura Lu Ting: Stabilizing the real estate market and improving the social security system are key to boosting domestic demand

WealthCoffee · 2026-03-03T11:58:06+00:00

Lu Ting expects China's economic growth rate in 2026 to follow a pattern of initially slowing down and then picking up. Policies should focus on the effectiveness of fiscal policy rather than its scale. Although there will be downward pressure at the beginning of the year, subsequent policy efforts and a low base effect will drive an improvement in growth rate in the second half of the year.

WealthCoffee

2026-03-03 11:58:06

Abstract generation in progress

Caixin: China’s economic growth in 2025 achieved the initial annual target. Looking ahead to 2026, Nomura China’s Chief Economist Lu Ting believes that considering the base effect and policy pace, the overall economic growth may show a pattern of declining at the beginning and rising later. The policy focus should be on fiscal policy, where the purpose is more important than the scale.

Lu Ting recently made this judgment at Nomura’s media briefing on China’s macroeconomic analysis and outlook for 2026. He explained that based on current high-frequency data, at the start of 2026, China’s economy still faces certain downward pressures, and the strength of policy support will only be clear after the March National People’s Congress. As policies continue to be implemented, combined with the lower base in the second half of 2025, economic growth in the third and fourth quarters is expected to improve, showing a pattern of declining first and rising later.

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