The weight loss drug market welcomes a heavyweight player! Several investigational drugs in development, Roche ( RHHBY.US ) vows to break into the top three globally

Ruitong Finance APP has learned that Swiss pharmaceutical giant Roche (RHHBY.US) is striving to capture double-digit market share in the weight loss drug market and hopes to narrow the gap with competitor Novo Nordisk (NVO.US). The company’s CEO Thomas Schinecker stated in an interview, “We expect to at least rank among the top three in the market.”

Aiming for the Top Three Globally

Eli Lilly (LLY.US) and Novo Nordisk are fiercely competing in the lucrative weight loss drug arena, but Roche is also a formidable competitor. Their confidence stems from multiple weight loss drugs, including CT-388. After years of development, Roche has built a rich pipeline in metabolism, including CT-388 (a GLP-1/GIP dual receptor agonist) acquired through Carmot, CT-996 (an oral small-molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist), and CT-868 (an oral GLP-1/GIP dual receptor agonist), as well as the long-acting incretin analog Petrelintide from Zealand Pharma, the MASH drug Pegozafermin from 89bio, and their own MSTN monoclonal antibody Emugrobart.

In January this year, Roche announced impressive weight loss results from Phase 2 trials of CT-388. The trial involved 469 obese or overweight patients, testing three subcutaneous doses, focusing on weight change after 48 weeks of treatment. Results showed that at week 48, patients on the highest dose of 24 mg experienced an average weight loss of 22.5%, with no plateau in weight reduction. Regarding safety, Roche indicated that CT-388 was well tolerated, although some gastrointestinal reactions occurred, similar to other incretin-based drugs, mostly mild to moderate and not significantly affecting treatment.

CT-388 has begun Phase 3 trials in January for obese or overweight patients with type 2 diabetes, and Phase 2 studies for obese or overweight patients with comorbid T2D are ongoing. CT-388 also has potential for combination with Petrelintide, which could break weight loss plateaus, delay rebound, and improve tolerability, making it a potentially best-in-class therapy. Data from Phase 1b shows that the fixed-dose combination treatment resulted in an average weight loss of 8.6% over 16 weeks.

Additionally, CT-996 is an oral, biased GLP-1R agonist small molecule currently in Phase 2 trials for obesity and T2D. Phase 1 results showed that after 4 weeks of treatment, obese patients without T2D lost an average of 7.3%. CT-868 is expected to start Phase 3 trials for type 1 diabetes in 2026.

Pegozafermin, a FGF21 analog, is in Phase 3 trials for metabolic dysfunction-related fatty liver disease (MASH) in patients with moderate to severe fibrosis (F2 and F3) and cirrhosis (F4), with leading global progress and potential for best-in-class (BIC) status. According to Evaluate Pharma, peak sales of Pegozafermin could exceed $5 billion. Emugrobart (GYM329/RG6237), a monoclonal antibody targeting MSTN using recycling and scanning antibody technology, aims to eliminate latent myostatin from plasma and tissues, potentially solving muscle loss caused by GLP-1. Roche estimates that Emugrobart could reach annual sales of $2-3 billion.

Roche’s Confidence—No Patent Cliff in Sight

Thomas Schinecker stated at the 2026 JPMorgan Conference, “Our product portfolio will drive growth through 2028, and there is currently no patent cliff.” Amid widespread patent expirations among peers, Roche’s oncology business, a key growth engine, gives it confidence to challenge the top three in the global weight loss market.

Oncology is Roche’s largest business segment, including oncology and hematology, with hematology covering blood cancers and some non-cancerous blood diseases (such as hemophilia). Roche’s 2025 financial report shows global pharmaceutical revenue increased 9% year-over-year to 47.669 billion Swiss francs, with oncology and hematology contributing nearly half, totaling 23.9 billion Swiss francs.

The breast cancer product line is the cornerstone of Roche’s oncology business, including trastuzumab (Herceptin), pertuzumab (Perjeta), Phesgo (a subcutaneous fixed-dose combination of pertuzumab and trastuzumab), ADC drug ado-trastuzumab emtansine (Kadcyla), PI3Kα inhibitor inavolisib, and PD-L1 inhibitor atezolizumab (Tecentriq). Notably, Phesgo achieved sales of 2.441 billion Swiss francs in 2025, up 48%, becoming a major growth driver.

Roche’s strength in hematologic oncology is also significant, with drugs like CD79b ADC Polivy (venetoclax), CD20/CD3 bispecific Columvi (geryvac), and mosunetuzumab (Lunsumio). Polivy’s 2025 revenue grew 38% year-over-year to 1.47 billion Swiss francs, mainly driven by increased penetration in first-line treatment of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) in the U.S.

Beyond oncology, Roche also focuses on neurology, immunology, and ophthalmology, with best-selling products such as Ocrevus, Evrysdi, Xolair, Gazyva, Actemra, and Vabysmo.

To counter the patent cliff, Roche has adopted an external expansion strategy, completing 14 deals in 2024 and over 20 since 2025, totaling more than $20 billion, covering oncology, immunology, metabolism, and neuroscience. Its robust pipeline of potential successors to existing products gives Roche confidence that it will not face a patent cliff. Roche plans to launch up to 19 new drugs by 2030, with 17 expected to have annual sales exceeding 1 billion Swiss francs, and 9 potentially surpassing 3 billion Swiss francs at peak sales.