March 1, 2026 Weekend Review: Don't panic, ask yourself!

The hottest topic this weekend is the conflict between the Americans and Iran. After going in circles, it has been the main focus from before the New Year to after the New Year! Retail investors have two main thoughts: one is related to the tech sector, which coincides with the overnight decline of the US stock market, causing panic! First, it’s important to understand that in previous trading sessions, Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng had already broken their support levels, but optical communications remained relatively strong. Regarding CPO performance, unless someone is holding long-term without selling, most people probably won’t be interested. Recently, the tech sector’s rally mainly involves optical communications and PCBs, which dominate the market. Shenghong Technology was affected by external factors on Friday, and Nvidia dropped over 4 points overnight. Combined with external news, a sharp decline is normal. However, in past sessions, there was often a rebound because the news was already known. On the compute power front, funds attacked on Friday without being affected by the US market decline, but after two days of continuous rise, a correction is normal. There’s nothing to worry about; it even provides an opportunity for core disagreements!

[Taoguba]
The other perspective is within the cyclical sectors. I think these people need to understand a concept: when conflicts erupt, the actual beneficiaries are the US dollar and energy, namely gold, oil, and gas, as well as related shipping and resource sectors. These are driven by inflation logic and used as hedges, but the premise is that prices are low! If prices are high, the hedging property is lost. Under this premise, evaluate which sectors—oil, shipping, steel, coal, precious metals, small metals, industrial metals, chemicals, rare earth magnets, lithium batteries—are resources or energy, which are high or low. It’s clear at a glance. First, select sectors, then individual stocks!

Last week, during the first four days of the new year, I believe the biggest takeaway wasn’t how many opportunities were seized, but how these days defined the market trend. We’ve been in this market for more than a year. Every year at the start, I say the same: observe for three days, identify the style, and confirm the main players’ tactics for the year. That’s how we define this year’s market! The current main strategy of the market is ultra-short-term trading, so technical analysis suffices. Add one rule: under this rule, use technicals to evaluate the entire market! Why? Because the current main players don’t follow logic. For example, Dream 2.0—everyone knows it’s overexpected, but they refuse to buy in; instead, they create A-shock, Chinese Online, Jiecheng Shares—targeted moves that are very obvious. Normally, if it’s in other sectors, such high-end moves wouldn’t involve A-shock. But in AI applications, the main players are very aggressive, indicating they want retail investors to lose confidence. This process usually involves at least four rounds, until retail investors become paranoid. The result? Even if prices rebound later, retail investors’ first reaction is to run!

Another point is that Yunnan Energy Holdings has opened up significantly, reaching the seventh support level. Previously, the suppression was at the fourth level. Last week was relatively easy for short-term traders, especially for first-board players. But this raises a question: should you participate now? What’s the best approach in the current market? I asked myself this at noon—short-term trading is possible, but what are the consequences of doing it long-term? How to find a safe distance between the two? The answer is to strike quickly and exit.

Most retail investors lack short-term trading experience. I’ve been in this market for a long time and no longer trade short-term easily. Last week, I randomly traded Light Industry Real Estate, Huayin Electric Power, Dongfang Electric, Huasheng Tiancheng, Tuowei Information—all midstream. Huayin Electric Power made a profit, which I used to buy Light Industry Real Estate. I didn’t make much on Dongfang Electric, and the next day, there was little premium. I’m still a midstream trader. I understand the failure of Light Industry Real Estate—its pattern doesn’t fit the model. The others, like Dongfang Electric, are small moves with little significance. The key is speed—very fast! If not using a trading keyboard, just a mobile phone, I think it’s hard. That’s my honest feeling. So I usually don’t recommend my followers do ultra-short-term trading. Why? Because in the current market environment (at least with volume), small retail traders have no advantage. Since they lack advantage, the only option is to control their drawdown and focus on longer-term gains. There’s no need to compete fiercely! Why do large funds rarely do short-term trading in the end? Because after they grow big, entering and exiting becomes more complicated. One mistake or impulsive move can ruin half a lifetime! So if you really want to trade, do it in a small bite—eat and run. I think anyone trying to hold from start to finish has issues. Not to mention, style-wise, focusing only on first and consecutive boards can lead you into trouble. Market style shifts are unpredictable, and staying close to danger is the best approach!

The market’s style has changed significantly this year. On the first day, it was the realization of AI application themes, like Daily Interactive. Then chemical sectors surged sharply, which is different from usual styles. Later, CPO declined, and PCB rose—like a jump of over a month, then a quick return to the original position in two days, driven by randomness and storytelling. First, realize pre-holiday stocks, then immediately find targets—main players’ plans are already set! Last week, the market mostly watched the Shanghai Composite perform, with institutions focusing on small metals and power sectors. On Friday, Yunnan Energy Holdings broke out of abnormal suppression, and small metals reached a climax. External news also stimulated the market. On Monday, these resource sectors at high levels should be observed. The standard for judgment is just to adjust; we don’t need to decide whether to buy, only to evaluate risk-reward. Is it suitable to buy stocks like Zhangyuan Tungsten or Jiangwu Equipment? Always watch for style shifts—many cases of “left foot stepping on right foot” last year!

In energy sectors, remember one thing: the market has not been inactive. Retail investors are often led by the nose. Since the start of the year, sectors like chemicals, small metals, oil, gas, and shipping have surged. These sectors adjusted for three days previously. Stronger ones like Intercontinental Oil & Gas and COSCO Shipping used sideways consolidation instead of correction. The middle ground reference is China National Petroleum. Also, military industry moved—when military stocks move, commercial aerospace tends to follow. Our focus shouldn’t be impulsive at open or panic. Some think it’s an opportunity and chase immediately, but these are often cyclical price increases, resources, energy, shipping, etc., that aren’t properly categorized. The real beneficiaries are energy and tech, with expectations and potential. During trading, reacting without a plan is risky. The normal approach is to watch the energy vs. tech balance!

Looking back at Friday’s market, many ask what to watch. It’s about your review and the bidding process. First, observe Yunnan Energy Holdings, which broke through the fifth support level yesterday—can it advance to the seventh today? Yunnan Energy’s sixth support level was weakly broken and then strengthened during trading. Funds are controlling it, and the subsequent levels are complete. If it’s just a lone wolf, it’s unlikely to succeed. During bidding, GanNeng Shares exceeded expectations, and Yunnan Energy Holdings didn’t fall behind. Then, a reverse push—re-accumulation from lower levels—happened. After that, no more buy points in the power sector, only a “one-way” move. Accelerate further, with GanNeng and Huayin Power pushing to the top, but it’s hard to generate surprises again. For Monday, if the power sector wants to continue, the only way is for Yunnan Energy Holdings to actively break support and then push higher. In this situation, opening up the height is key—confidence and courage to challenge abnormal moves. If Yunnan Energy Holdings can break support and end well, it’s a big positive for the power sector!

At 9:30, Yunnan Energy Holdings, Huayin Power, and Shennong Electric Power surged to limit up. Most funds tend to chase the only high or low, rarely the middle. GanNeng Shares played a supporting role. Compared to them, Huayin Power, being in the same group as Yunnan Energy Holdings, is less critical here.

At 9:32, Xianglu Tungsten surged to limit up—small metals sector. It quickly rebounded from a high level at open. A detail: around 2 pm, a 100 million order was missed but quickly filled, indicating someone thought Zhangyuan Tungsten’s rise was too high and preemptively sold out. This is a hidden risk.

At 9:33, Yuyin Shares surged to limit up. Initially related to digital currency, then stablecoins, but during the day, Nanhua Futures and First Venture Securities appeared. Financial stocks tend to appear at the end of a rally—uncertain whether it’s tech or power. The main purpose is to hedge the index. Tech stocks fell sharply during the day, indicating a tech correction. Wens Food and Muyuan Food were obvious risk hedges.

At 9:34, Xinjuyuan Network surged to limit up, followed by Tuowei Information and Hanggang Shares—these are from the DeepSeek batch, focusing on compute power. The news from Huawei boosted DeepSeek. Looking at Daily Interactive and Qingyun Tech’s intra-day trends shows they are mostly quantitative stocks, with no limit-up, just high to low swings. They mainly target compute power and data centers. In the afternoon, there was some impact from precious metals, but the attack was not a one-day event. The focus remains on compute power. Over the weekend, external news combined with the sharp decline in US compute stocks is a good warning. The most sluggish stock at open was Capital Online, which was initially pushed but didn’t hit the limit. This was discussed in the comments—normally, it should have hit the limit. The most problematic was Wangsu Technology!

At 9:34, Junda Shares surged to limit up—space photovoltaic sector. Shuangliang Energy saved the day with an intra-day rise. An incident: around 2 pm, a 100 million order was missed but quickly filled, indicating someone thought Zhangyuan Tungsten’s rise was too high and preemptively sold out. This is a hidden risk.

At 9:33, Yuyin Shares surged to limit up. Initially related to digital currency, then stablecoins, but during the day, Nanhua Futures and First Venture Securities appeared. Financial stocks tend to appear at the end of a rally—uncertain whether it’s tech or power. The main purpose is to hedge the index. Tech stocks fell sharply during the day, indicating a tech correction. Wens Food and Muyuan Food were obvious risk hedges.

At 9:34, Xinjuyuan Network surged to limit up, followed by Tuowei Information and Hanggang Shares—these are from the DeepSeek batch, focusing on compute power. The news from Huawei boosted DeepSeek. Looking at Daily Interactive and Qingyun Tech’s intra-day trends shows they are mostly quantitative stocks, with no limit-up, just high to low swings. They mainly target compute power and data centers. In the afternoon, there was some impact from precious metals, but the attack was not a one-day event. The focus remains on compute power. Over the weekend, external news combined with the sharp decline in US compute stocks is a good warning. The most sluggish stock at open was Capital Online, which was initially pushed but didn’t hit the limit. This was discussed in the comments—normally, it should have hit the limit. The most problematic was Wangsu Technology!

At 9:34, Junda Shares surged to limit up—space photovoltaic sector. Shuangliang Energy saved the day with an intra-day rise. An incident: around 2 pm, a 100 million order was missed but quickly filled, indicating someone thought Zhangyuan Tungsten’s rise was too high and preemptively sold out. This is a hidden risk.

At 9:36, Zhangyuan Tungsten hit the limit. Both commercial aerospace and AI applications are retreating as funds shift toward small metals and cyclical sectors. Later, stocks like Baotai and others appeared, but the market was too early, and volume didn’t keep up, leading to divergence. When the market shows problems again, the reason was already evident on Friday!

After 10:00, compute power started to flow back, including commercial aerospace. It’s normal for a third-day correction, but the sharp decline was unexpected—like Feiwo Technology dropping from 15 points to just over 5. This indicates that large funds probably knew the weekend news in advance. If you don’t believe it, check the 10:22 data of Hexun Petroleum and the earlier rise of pork futures. It’s about great power games—what happens and when. The expected scenario for Monday is that Hexun Petroleum will be a one-word forecast. Not a one-word forecast, but the expectations for energy and precious metals are strong, especially energy. Small metals’ expectations are somewhat overextended.

At 10:30, Fenghuo Communication surged to limit up—optical communications. After Longhua Fiber’s tenfold rise, the sector kept changing. Recently, Zhongtian Technology and Hengtong Optoelectronics were prominent. Nvidia’s first shock was bearable; the second? Nvidia dropped again Friday night, and external conditions aren’t optimistic.

At 10:41, Jinkai New Energy surged to limit up. Hangdian Shares, which had a failed breakout on Thursday, was lifted in the morning. One hour after opening, funds continued to strengthen power stocks, and compute power surged. Capital Online didn’t hit the limit, then started to decline.

In the afternoon, Worde directly hit the limit with a straight move—market cap of 10 billion, only three minutes from 20 cents to limit, with two minutes at the end. Cultivated diamonds and Yellow River Whirlwind also rose from the water, but the reasons are unclear. Even if known now, it’s after the fact. During the opening, nobody knew.

At 13:03, Jaway New Energy surged to limit. Power stocks like 300, similar to Xinjin Power, are at this stage. The afternoon’s main theme is cyclical sectors. Morning declines mostly affected commercial aerospace, which has little support from big funds. Early rises are not good.

At 13:09, Min Dong Power surged to limit. A warning was triggered at that time, and support was established within seconds. Later, Dulong Huolong and Shufa Gas appeared. If nobody knew about weekend events in advance, it’s hard to believe!

In the afternoon, precious metals like Hunan Gold also surged, reflecting a cyclical rebound. Chemical sectors also showed some recovery, but these are passive rebounds, lacking initiative.

In summary, intra-day market review shows that funds have long been preparing for the weekend conflicts between Iran and the US, even earlier than that. Just look at COSCO Shipping’s trend—before the holiday, it hit the limit. At that time, many still wondered what was happening. Now, the question is: when will these people realize profits? Under what circumstances? I believe it’s during a sentiment climax. So, on Monday, these sectors should still have some room to run, especially if cyclical sectors like energy provide support. The most likely scenario is energy supporting resources!

In the first four days of the new year, the market’s high was unlocked. Many are impatient. Remember, it’s just the beginning of the year. My view differs from others: while most celebrate the rise of Yunnan Energy Holdings, I think it’s wise to be cautious at this point. Many times, the market has failed due to uniformity. During live broadcasts, I mentioned that whenever the main players open the market high, institutions tend to sell off. Sure enough, Zhongji Xuchuang and others started to decline. The pendulum between institutions and themes was discussed earlier in January—just a reminder to review that video if forgotten!

Next week, focus on how much the Monday event will ferment. One sentence: know what can be done and what cannot.

Then, consider what retail investors are thinking now. Greedy ones are probably wondering which oil or gas stock to buy on Monday; fearful ones are thinking about cutting losses. But try to think from the institutions’ perspective—what will they do on Monday? What’s the expectation gap? The market has experienced this countless times: main players don’t follow logic! If unsure, and your holdings are not at high levels, it’s better to wait. When fear overcomes reason, do the opposite of what others do!

To strengthen your confidence, ask yourself late at night: can the Iran-US conflict be resolved quickly? If it’s truly resolved, will it calm down? What are their goals? Gold prices are so high; they must have an end. Will things spiral out of control? If cyclical hype continues, what can still be played? Will these themes last all year? It’s just the beginning of the year. If not, what will come next? Who was last year’s Zhongyi Da? Who was last year’s Yi Zhongtian?

Thanks to everyone who liked, tipped, and cheered—your support helps me pursue my goals calmly and share valuable knowledge. I will continue to share more valuable content. Wishing all brothers who do the three-in-one support a prosperous year!

Thanks to those who tipped—special thanks to @Cangdong Zuoshou and @JinFangZhi for your recognition!

If you find this article helpful, please leave a tip, like, and support with a three-in-one. Thanks! The review reflects personal opinions and does not constitute investment advice!