JPMorgan Chase upgrades its rating to buy after Netflix's exit from the Warner Bros. deal

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Investing.com - JPMorgan has resumed coverage of Netflix with an overweight rating and a target price of $120 after the costly studio acquisition battle that saw streaming giant Netflix withdraw.

Investors have recognized Netflix’s discipline in M&A. Since announcing the bid for Warner Bros. in December last year, Netflix’s stock has fallen over 18%, but it rose 24% within five days after exiting the bidding war. Currently, Netflix’s valuation is about 30 times the 2027 estimated EPS of $4.01, higher than its large tech peers. JPMorgan considers this premium reasonable given Netflix’s similar revenue growth and faster profit expansion.

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The company declined to match Paramount Global’s $31 per share offer for Warner Bros., stating the deal is no longer financially attractive.

Paramount agreed to acquire Warner Bros. for $110 billion, with the transaction expected to close in Q3 2026, at which point it will pay the $2.8 billion termination fee owed to Netflix.

The brokerage states that Netflix remains a healthy organic growth story, benefiting from global subscriber growth, pricing power, and an advertising tier still in early monetization stages.

JPMorgan expects operating margins to expand to 32% by 2026, with about 140 basis points of normalized leverage, and forecasts a CAGR from 2025 to 2028 of: revenue 12%, operating income 21%, GAAP EPS 24%, and free cash flow 22%.

JPMorgan projects 2026 revenue at $51.7 billion, near the upper end of the company’s 12%-14% growth guidance, with free cash flow of $11 billion, up 16%. The firm also expects share repurchases to increase in 2026, partly due to the $2.8 billion termination fee related to abandoning the deal.

JPMorgan notes that user engagement remains a key focus, with viewing hours increasing by 1% in the first half of 2025 and 2% in the second half, despite accelerated growth in original content to 9% in the latter half. The bank is optimistic about a strong content lineup in 2026 and the potential for price hikes in the U.S. later this year.

This article was translated with AI assistance. For more information, see our Terms of Use.

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