Last night, the US stock market opened + manufacturing PMI index was released + Jerome Powell's speech. In just two or three hours, Bitcoin rose nearly 5,000 points. The main confirmed reasons at this stage are more sentiment-driven or structurally driven rather than a single positive factor. Previously, conflicts between the US and Israel and Iran triggered panic selling, leading to a rapid decline as funds sought safety. As a risk asset, Bitcoin could only be heavily sold off during wartime, with capital flowing into gold and other precious metals, intensifying the bearish sentiment. Last night clearly appeared to be a move to continuously stop out short positions, reversing to create buying pressure and pushing the price higher. This wave looks more like a recovery after an oversold condition, a rebound, and should not yet be considered a trend reversal. If there is no sustained increase in buying volume afterward, the market will likely continue to oscillate and tug back and forth.

The Federal Reserve will hold a monetary policy meeting on the evening of March 18. The probability of not cutting interest rates is high, and the market is very likely to decline on negative news. Based on the typical behavior in the crypto space, the decline might start one or two weeks in advance, digesting this negative news early. #深度创作营