Institution: AI Technology Drives Shift in Movie Content Supply

According to Lighthouse Professional Edition data, as of March 1, the total box office revenue for 2026 (including pre-sales) has surpassed 10 billion yuan. Guoxin Securities believes that entertainment demand remains strong, and AI technology is driving a shift in film content supply. 1) Looking back at the 2025 box office performance, high-quality content such as “Nezha: The Devil’s Child Comes into the World” and “Zootopia 2” have achieved good results; 2) In the short term, from the perspective of screening schedules, the 2026 lineup currently lacks top IP films and blockbuster special effects movies, putting short-term pressure on supply. Additionally, film theater companies have high operating leverage, so a decline in revenue could significantly impact profit margins; 3) In the medium to long term, breakthroughs in AI video technology domestically and internationally have made AI video models industrial tools, solving issues like physical logic violations, audiovisual asynchrony, and lack of director control in film production. This has greatly reduced video generation costs and shortened production cycles, potentially promoting the supply of AI animation, short videos, TV dramas, and movies. Zhongtai Securities believes that 1) the film market is recovering and growing again, with single-screen revenue bottoming out and rebounding. The market structure shows expansion potential across multiple dimensions such as users, scenarios, and value chains. Single-screen revenue has been fluctuating downward since 2012, hit a low during the pandemic, and has begun to recover. Additionally, the average age of moviegoers continues to rise, with viewers over 30 surpassing 50% for the first time in 2024, indicating increased overall consumer spending power; third- and lower-tier city box office share has exceeded 40%, opening up revenue opportunities; non-ticket revenue from cinemas is gaining unprecedented attention, with IP downstream development extending horizontally, and film commercial monetization paths continuously expanding. 2) The film market has shifted from a focus on “quantity” to a focus on “reputation,” with mid- and low-end content being phased out and high-quality supply becoming the core driver of box office success. (Securities Times)