Data: Polymarket platform's US-Iran conflict-related event contracts have attracted $600 million in funding

Odaily Planet Daily reports that after the United States and Israel launched airstrikes against Iran, the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket quickly launched more than ten event contracts related to the Iran situation. These cover topics such as ceasefire timing, the successor to the Supreme Leader, and whether U.S. troops will enter Iran. Since the attack, related markets have attracted approximately $600 million in trading volume. One contract asking “Will Khamenei lose his position as Iran’s Supreme Leader before March 31?” was settled at 100% after Iranian state television confirmed his death, with a trading volume of $45 million. The biggest winning account, “Curseaaaaaaa,” profited about $757,000 from a “Yes” position. Four other traders also made six-figure profits. Additionally, the largest single event contract is “When will the U.S. launch an airstrike on Iran?” Since launching on December 22 of last year, it has accumulated a trading volume of $529 million, with a single-day volume of $89.6 million on February 28. Subsequent markets show that traders generally bet that the conflict will reach a phased outcome within a few weeks: the probability of a ceasefire before March 2 was only 4%, by March 6 it was 15%, but by March 31 it rose to 61%, and by April 30 it reached 78%. (CoinDesk)