#我在Gate广场过新年 Is the crypto bear market coming in 2026?

1. First, the conclusion: In 2026, the bear market is confirmed (as of February 2026). Based on technical, capital, and macro signals, the crypto market has shifted from a bull to a bear cycle.
★Bitcoin retraced over 50% from its 2025 high (around $140,000+), breaking below the ETF and MicroStrategy cost lines.
★Four consecutive monthly red candles, a pattern only seen during the deep bear in 2018.
★Since the start of 2026, BTC has fallen over 24%, ETH over 30%.
★Market sentiment: Extreme fear (Fear & Greed index at 11).
In one sentence: This is not a correction; it’s a bear market.

2. Five hardcore signals confirming the bear market
1. Technical: Trend has completely turned bad
★Key support levels (84,000 and 76,000) all broken, with no strong buying support.
★Weekly/monthly charts show a bearish alignment, with weak rebounds and new lows constantly forming.
★Frequent pinning and liquidation normalcy, with frequent long-short kills.
2. Capital: Liquidity retreat and institutional withdrawal
★BTC spot ETF capital inflow has slowed and turned into net outflows.
★High leverage contracts are repeatedly liquidated, with capital rapidly leaving the market.
★DeFi TVL continues to shrink, on-chain activity declines.
3. Macro: Super hawkish stance (the biggest killer)
★Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Woorch (super hawk), advocates for high interest rates and balance sheet reduction, draining liquidity.
★Dollar strengthening, risk assets under pressure, crypto market bears the brunt.
★No new narratives, no incremental capital, only stock-to-stock battles.
4. Market structure: Whales targeted precisely
★Main players sweep stop-losses, fake breakouts, and leverage death spirals occur frequently.
★Mass liquidation of high-leverage accounts, “whale liquidations” become routine.
5. Historical pattern: Bull-bear cycles confirmed
★After the previous bull market peak (2024-2025), the bear cycle began, which historically lasts 12-18 months.

3. How will the bear market unfold? Two paths (2026)
Path one: Deep bear (more likely)
★Break below 60,000 → 50,000 → 40,000, accelerating decline and panic selling.
★Leverage unwinding, small exchanges/projects collapsing, industry reshuffle.
★Bottoming process lasts 6-12 months, waiting for the next halving (2028).
Path two: Volatile bear (weak bear)
★Repeated fluctuations between 60,000 and 80,000, sharp drops and rebounds, no clear trend.
★After rate cut expectations emerge, a phase rebound occurs but unlikely to reach bull market highs. Key variables: Federal Reserve policies, ETF capital flows, regulatory implementation.

4. Final reminder: 2026 is not a “correction,” it’s a bear cycle. Don’t expect a V-shaped reversal, don’t bet on policy rescue, don’t leverage heavily and hold on stubbornly.
Core of the bear market: Stay alive, wait for the wind.

Are you currently fully invested, completely out, or just watching? Share your position strategy in the comments.