Federal Reserve researchers say Kalshi data can provide real-time insights for policy making

2026-02-19 04:46:20

Odaily Planet Daily News: Three researchers from the U.S. Federal Reserve System published a paper on February 12th stating that data from the prediction market platform Kalshi can reflect macroeconomic expectations more in real-time and should be incorporated into the Federal Reserve’s decision-making framework. The authors of the paper include Federal Reserve Chief Economist Anthony Diercks, research assistant Jared Dean Katz, and Johns Hopkins University researcher Jonathan Wright.

The study compared Kalshi data with traditional surveys and market-implied expectations, concluding that Kalshi can provide high-frequency, continuously updated probability distributions used to measure risk-neutral probabilities of macro indicators such as interest rate decisions. The researchers pointed out that Kalshi reacts more quickly after major policy statements or economic data releases.

However, the report emphasizes that the Federal Reserve research paper is an internal discussion material and does not represent an official policy stance. (Cointelegraph)

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