Michael Terpin Warns Bitcoin Could Return to $40,000 Before a True Recovery

According to Michael Terpin, CEO of Transform Ventures, the current state of the cryptocurrency market is happening almost exactly in line with historical patterns. That’s why he is skeptical of overly optimistic predictions about the recent market bottom. “When people think the bottom will be at $80,000 and the market only declines for six weeks, that seems ridiculous to me,” Terpin said at the Consensus Hong Kong 2026 conference on Thursday.
Predictions that Bitcoin will hit a bottom at $60,000 and immediately rebound seem a bit hasty. “That also seems a little early.”
Although he does not forecast another prolonged year-long downturn, Terpin believes the market may face “another tough phase” in what he describes as a fragile environment. He thinks Bitcoin could return to around $50,000 or even $40,000 before establishing a sustainable bottom.
The halving event is a core element in Bitcoin’s design because it cuts the reward miners receive for validating transactions in half approximately every four years, reducing the rate at which new coins are created.
This inherent supply shock reinforces Bitcoin’s scarcity, a key part of its value, and has historically preceded major rallies when the new supply decreases while demand remains stable or increases.
The halving mechanism helps slow Bitcoin’s inflation rate over time, ultimately capping the total supply at 21 million coins and solidifying its position as digital gold.
“We are exactly where we should be,” Terpin argued, pointing out that the four-year cycle is firmly established around Bitcoin’s halving events.
He contended that one of the most reliable aspects of previous cycles is the approximate timing of the bubble peak and subsequent crash.
“The bull market erupts in Q4 after the halving event,” he noted, adding that the speculative boom phase typically lasts from 9 to 11 months. “This time, it’s lasted 11 months.”
Terpin compared this closely with the previous cycle. He said, “The peak, the bubble burst, was on November 10, 2021. The bottom was right after FTX declared bankruptcy on November 10, 2022. Exactly one year later.”
Even the broader four-year cycle shows remarkable consistency. One complete cycle is only three days off from the standard four-year cycle, while the first halving cycle deviated by just a few weeks from a one-year structure from peak to bottom, according to Terpin.