Longjian Convertible Bond Valuation

I’ve noticed that my recent calculations for new bonds have been pretty accurate, and today luck was on my side. I bought a little Longjian convertible bond at the close—let’s review it.
110100 Longjian Convertible Bond, pre-market conversion value 95.25, premium rate 47%-77%. I predicted the price would be between 140 and 168.59 yesterday.
Today, with 14-day reverse repos, most funds are cautious before the New Year. Both buying and selling Longjian bonds were difficult today. Normally, I wouldn’t participate in Longjian, but under extreme market conditions, if the first day’s closing price is below or equal to 155, I might consider it.
The estimated closing price for Longjian’s feast of the sea is 150–154 yuan. I wanted to criticize it, but copying and pasting the results surprisingly made it predict correctly.
The reason for the drop at the end of today’s trading is insufficient buying volume. The opening had 300 million, but by the close, it was being eaten away. I mostly used funds for reverse repos in the morning, and in the afternoon, I placed some limit orders at 150 yuan, just in time to get into reverse repos, planning to watch for any gains from reverse repo yields.
Under normal circumstances, the price would rise to the average premium rate of recently listed secondary bonds. I saw the prices gradually fall from 157 to 156, 155, 154, so I bought decisively. Although there’s a risk of a half-month shutdown, I still believe in my T+0 trading success rate. I think I can make money tomorrow.
On the last trading day before the New Year, there are four possible trends:

1. Open low, rise high (many winning bids around 154 sell, and cautious institutions before the New Year cause a low open, but later follow-up pushes prices higher)
2. Open high, fall back (reverse repo funds return, discovering new bonds below 160 are too cheap, leading to an open high, but the remaining 800 million or so of winning bids quickly push prices down)
3. Open flat, fluctuate (the market drops, and this bond follows the fluctuation) — but I firmly believe it can rise above 159.6 in the short term.
4. Open high, rise high (then I don’t care—farewell to 159.6–160.97)
   Taking an average: 160.285. Trust myself—hoping to leave some room for tomorrow!