The market is once again showing some polarization. Based on the non-farm payroll data released today, the economy is performing better than expected. Although this reduces the likelihood of the Federal Reserve quickly cutting interest rates, it also demonstrates the resilience of the U.S. economy. At the same time, it distances the U.S. further from a recession. However, there are signs of tug-of-war in the US stock market, likely because some investors believe rate cuts are now far off.

But from my personal perspective, the relationship between rate cuts and the data right now isn't very significant. We've discussed this many times before: since Trump took office, his only demand has been for rate cuts. When economic data is good, rate cuts are justified; when data is bad, rate cuts are even more necessary; when inflation drops, cut rates; when inflation rises, well, cut rates first and then see. That has been Trump's most direct demand.

Therefore, how the Federal Reserve speaks and acts after June is more important, in my opinion. Before that, the influence should be limited. So, we see the US stock market experiencing slight fluctuations, wavering between gains and losses. The cryptocurrency market is suffering. A rebound to around 2010-2035 could be a good point to short, with targets around 1918-1872.