Under the Duck River game, the true variables of Bitcoin are here

At the most uncertain moment in policy, the market has actually already given the answer. The latest market data shows that the probability of a rate cut in January is only 4%, which essentially means a pause is already a done deal. But what’s truly worth paying attention to is not Powell’s statements at this meeting, but the subtle shifts in the entire power structure.

No suspense about rate cuts, but Powell’s voice is weakening

A rate cut in January has become the opposite of market consensus—nobody expects it. Against this backdrop, Powell’s position has become somewhat delicate. As the outgoing Federal Reserve Chair, every word he says during this decline in influence carries less weight than before. The Trump administration’s attitude is also clear: if Powell makes aggressive moves during the transition period, appointing a new chair is not impossible. This “lame duck” style power struggle is shaping the overall policy direction.

The new Chair candidate is the real focus for the market

Instead of watching Powell’s every move, it’s better to focus on the candidates for the new Federal Reserve Chair. Several candidates mentioned by Trump tend to favor dovish policies—what does this mean for risk assets? More important than the probability of a rate cut itself is the potential shift in the entire policy framework. If the new Chair is indeed a dove, the monetary policy trajectory in the coming years will be completely different.

The true driver of Bitcoin: policy expectations rather than short-term meetings

Many investors are waiting for Powell’s speech this week, but that might not be the key point. Whether Bitcoin can continue to surge depends on policy expectations, not the outcome of any particular rate meeting. The market has gradually realized that the real game-changer is the upcoming government transition and the reshaping of the monetary policy framework.

The March Fed dot plot has limited reference value because, after the new government takes office, the entire policy-making logic could be reshuffled. From this perspective, the power interactions among the lame ducks are the core variables that will determine the future trajectory of risk assets.