Zheshang Strategy: Price-increasing varieties show divergence; securities firms experience high growth in prosperity

Key Points

In upstream cyclical commodities, there has been some differentiation among early-stage price-increasing varieties. From weekly month-on-month data, only gold prices among non-ferrous metals have risen, while silver and other industrial metals have declined to varying degrees. Prices of specific sectors such as petroleum and petrochemicals, basic chemicals, and others have also pulled back somewhat. Double焦 prices have rebounded. In TMT, the semiconductor sales cycle remains strong with industry prosperity intact. In downstream consumer goods, the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has increased month-on-month, supporting a strong performance in the liquor sector. In finance and real estate, trading volumes on both markets have expanded, margin financing balances remain high, highlighting strong growth in brokerages.

Summary of Content

1. Upstream Cyclical

1. Non-ferrous metals: Prices have diverged, with COMEX gold prices rising week-on-week; 2) Coal: Coal mining and washing PPI have recovered year-on-year growth, double焦 prices have rebounded; 3) Petroleum and petrochemicals: PPI for oil and natural gas extraction has declined, with crude oil prices under pressure.

2. Midstream Cyclical

1. Steel: Iron ore and rebar prices have increased week-on-week; 2) Basic chemicals: Major product prices have declined; 3) Construction materials: Industry prosperity remains relatively low; 4) Transportation: Shipping activity has declined, express delivery growth has slowed.

3. Midstream Manufacturing

1. Light industry manufacturing: Building materials and home furnishing sectors are weakening, white cardboard prices are low; 2) Automotive: PPI growth rate for automobile manufacturing remains low; 3) Machinery and equipment: Marginal recovery in excavator production and sales; 4) Power equipment: Wind power industry shows significant improvement, lithium battery sector is declining.

4. TMT

1. Electronics: Semiconductor sales cycle is upward; 2) Computing: Total profit growth in the software industry is accelerating; 3) Telecommunications: Total telecom business volume growth remains low and volatile; 4) Media: Movie box office revenue over the past 12 months has shown a marginal decline in year-on-year growth.

5. Downstream Consumption

1. Food and beverages: Wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has increased month-on-month; 2) Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery: Number of breeding sows in China has decreased year-on-year; 3) Home appliances: December export growth and kitchen appliance sales have further slowed; 4) Retail and social services: December retail sales growth has slowed; 5) Beauty and personal care: Cumulative sales of cosmetics, perfumes, and beauty tools over the past 12 months have declined year-on-year; 6) Pharmaceuticals and biotech: Marginal decline in Chinese medicine CPI, industry prosperity of innovative drugs is rising.

6. Financial and Real Estate

1. Real estate: Sales area of commercial housing and total investment in real estate development have declined year-on-year; 2) Securities: Trading volumes on both markets have expanded, margin financing balances remain high; 3) Insurance: Premium income growth remains low and volatile.

7. Risk Warning

Economic recovery is below expectations; Federal Reserve rate cut pace is slower than expected; Geopolitical conflicts intensify.

(Source: Zheshang Securities)