First Capital Futures: Increased regulatory oversight by exchanges, lithium carbonate 2605 contract continues to decline in early trading

Today’s early trading session, the main contract for lithium carbonate was at 129,000 yuan/ton, down over 6%, opening at a low and quickly falling to around 124,000 yuan/ton, with the decline expanding to over 9%. Currently, the price has stabilized and rebounded, approaching the opening price, with the decline narrowing.
On the cost side, overseas lithium mine prices are rising, supporting higher costs. Expectations for the resumption of production at underground lithium mines in the supply chain have been delayed, and before the Spring Festival and during the holiday, lithium salt factories may undergo maintenance, narrowing supply expectations. According to Chilean customs export data, in January 2026, Chile exported 16,950 tons of lithium carbonate to China, a month-on-month increase of 44.82% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.35%.
In the terminal industry, with the rapid development of the energy storage sector, demand for lithium carbonate remains supported. At the end of January, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the “Notice on Improving the Capacity Electricity Price Mechanism,” which explicitly clarifies the capacity electricity price mechanism for the first time and encourages the construction and operation of long-term energy storage. This policy may benefit energy storage demand and further influence lithium carbonate prices.
Previously, downstream inventory levels were sufficient, and as the Spring Festival approaches, stocking is nearing completion, making it difficult for demand to provide further price support. Holders’ capital inflow and bullish sentiment have cooled, and recent spot prices have declined, possibly stimulating downstream willingness to stock at lower prices.
In January, Chile’s exports of lithium carbonate to China increased month-on-month, easing expectations of reduced supply. The exchange has intensified regulatory measures (limiting withdrawals and opening positions), leading to capital outflows and a cooling market sentiment, with main contracts trading weaker.
As the Spring Festival approaches, caution is advised regarding the volatility risk caused by capital exiting the market. The market has experienced significant fluctuations, so trading should be cautious, mainly observing and waiting for prices to stabilize gradually before increasing positions. (First Capital Futures)