Trump publicly sets the tone for the Federal Reserve, with rate cut expectations at their peak. The US dollar is under pressure, gold fluctuates mildly stronger, and the crypto market is short-term bullish but with increased volatility. The medium to long-term outlook depends on inflation data and policy implementation pace.

I. Key Points of Trump's "Showdown"

1. Issued a "do or die" order to Fed Chair nominee Waller: dare to propose a rate hike, and the nomination will be immediately invalidated. "Absolutely will not" give him the job.
2. Firm belief that interest rates "will be cut soon," citing "our interest rates are too high," and emphasizing his financial literacy and economic understanding. He suggests the Fed should learn from his approach.
3. Acknowledges that the Fed is "theoretically independent" but hints that it must cooperate with his policies. At the same time, pressures to dismiss Fed Governor Cook. Treasury Secretary Bostick also publicly states that "the President has the authority to intervene in Fed decisions," putting the "White House directing the Fed" front and center.

II. Impact on the Three Major Markets

- US Dollar: Likely to weaken in the short term. Rising rate cut expectations will reduce the attractiveness of dollar assets, possibly leading to capital outflows. However, if inflation rebounds later, market concerns about policy shifts could cause the dollar to rebound temporarily.
- Gold: Short-term oscillations leaning stronger, but volatility will increase. Rate cut expectations are bullish for gold prices, but on February 5, prices surged then sharply dropped, so beware of a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" correction risk. Focus on January inflation data and policy implementation pace.
- Crypto Market: Short-term bullish but with increased volatility. Low interest rate environment favors risk assets, potentially attracting funds into crypto. However, questions about Fed independence could trigger concerns over policy stability. Coupled with regulatory factors, after a big rally, be cautious of profit-taking and correction risks.

III. Key Observation Points

1. Waller’s nomination progress: whether the Senate confirms smoothly, which will determine if rate cut expectations can continue.
2. Inflation and employment data: January CPI and non-farm payrolls are "hard indicators" for Fed policy. Data exceeding expectations could alter the rate cut rhythm.
3. Fed officials' statements: observe whether they withstand pressure or turn dovish.
4. Market sentiment: monitor CME rate futures for rate cut probabilities, USD index, technical signals for gold and cryptocurrencies, and adjust strategies accordingly.

IV. Operational Recommendations

1. Short-term: Light positions to speculate on rate cut expectations, set stop-loss orders, trade quickly in and out, avoid chasing highs.
2. Mid-term: Gradually build positions, focus on main cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH, consider adding on dips, avoid full positions blindly.
3. Risk Control: Given increased volatility, keep positions at 30-50%, reserve funds for extreme scenarios, and stay alert to regulatory developments and macro news.