QCP: Bitcoin rebounds after dropping to $72,900, US government shutdown ends boosting the market

Deep Tide TechFlow News, February 4th, QCP released a briefing indicating that Bitcoin has recently experienced increased volatility, dropping to around $72,900, hitting a new low since the US election. The price then rebounded after the US House of Representatives passed a $1.2 trillion funding bill and ended part of the government shutdown. Currently, the price is testing the $75,000 level again.

Although the risk of a government shutdown has temporarily eased, the Homeland Security funding is only extended until February 13th, and the risk of a new deadline remains. Meanwhile, Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, and his stance favoring a faster reduction of the balance sheet has attracted market attention, potentially impacting risk assets and the dollar’s movement.

Options market data shows that even if the spot price rebounds, implied volatility in the front end remains high, indicating that the market continues to price in recent risk premiums. The skew is sharply downward, reflecting market concerns about a potential crash. Analysts believe that $75,000 is a key turning point. If the level holds and funding conditions normalize, it could be a reasonable level to increase risk; if it breaks below, the market may quickly shift to a defensive stance.