Guessing BTC bear market bottom from historical cycles

We estimate based on the retracement depths of previous bull to bear cycles
The first retracement around 2011 was 94%
This can be ignored as it was the earliest stage
Liquidity was poor and participation was limited
The second retracement around 2013 was 87%
The third around 2017 was 84%
The fourth around 2021 was 77%
The fifth around 2025 is expected to be shallower based on cycle retracement strength
Because market consensus is stronger
With the addition of institutional participation
Mining costs and the impact of halving events
Currently, we are using historical cycle retracement shallowness to make an educated guess
If this retracement is 70%
The price would retrace to around 38,000, about 60%
The price would be around 50,500
My outlook is slightly more optimistic than these figures
Still sticking to the previous estimates
Around 63,000 and 52,000 for these two price levels.