Solana at a technical crossroads: heading towards $129 or recovery?

The price of Solana is at a critical juncture, with technical signals suggesting short-term vulnerability. With SOL trading at $116.26 (down 5.42% in 24 hours), the cryptocurrency faces an internal battle between the influx of new participants and selling pressure from established investors. This tension has formed a technical structure pointing toward specific bearish targets, including the critical level of $129 if a downward break is confirmed.

Surge of Participants and Contradictory Signals on the Network

On-chain activity reflects extraordinary demand for SOL. Since the beginning of the month, the number of wallets conducting transactions has experienced sustained and accelerated growth. At its peak, more than 8 million new addresses joined the network in just 24 hours, an indicator that typically anticipates bullish movements. This massive influx of participants injects fresh capital, strengthening liquidity and expanding platform usage.

The appeal of the Solana ecosystem persists, fueled by DeFi activity, viral memecoins, and high-performance applications that continue to attract capital flows. However, this positive metric coexists with dynamics suggesting the opposite on the price front.

Holder Dynamics: Selling Pressure Gains Ground

When analyzing macroeconomic behavior through indicators like the Exchange Net Position Change, a different reality emerges. Current holders, especially those with long-standing positions, seem to be reducing their exposure or preparing to liquidate. The buying demand that drives bullish rallies has significantly lost traction.

As the new capital injection weakens relatively, selling pressure begins to dominate market movements. This shift in dynamics is crucial: when existing supply exceeds new demand, the price tends to weaken. Data suggests that established holders are taking profits, increasing the likelihood of a technical breakdown of the current structure to the downside.

Technical Structure Projects Weakness: Critical Levels at $129 and $136

SOL has formed an ascending wedge that, historically, often anticipates corrections. This formation projects a potential decline of 9.5% from current levels, placing the downside target near $129. This price represents a relevant technical support where the price could find stability.

A confirmed break would likely initially push SOL toward $136. If that support line is lost, the $130 level would be exposed, a territory where buyers might attempt to establish a temporary floor amid the overall market caution. The bearish momentum in technical indicators reinforces this pessimistic outlook.

Alternative Scenarios: When Could the Coin Recover

Although the technical outlook appears challenging, the bearish scenario is not set in stone. If investor sentiment improves and selling pressure eases, SOL could rebound from the lower trendline of the wedge. A confirmed breakout above $146 would signal a renewal of bullish strength, potentially opening the door toward $151 and beyond, which would completely invalidate the immediate bearish perspective.

Solana’s next move will depend on whether new participants can offset the exit of established holders or if selling pressure intensifies. For now, $129 remains the projected bearish target in case of confirmed technical weakness.