Bitcoin vs. Gold: A technical signal that only appeared during major market bottoms

Source: CritpoTendencia Original Title: Bitcoin vs. Gold: A Technical Signal That Only Appeared During Major Market Lows Original Link: The Bitcoin and gold crossover once again ignites a signal that, historically, does not appear at any time. According to analyst Michaël van de Poppe, the RSI of the Bitcoin/Gold pair has fallen again to the 30 zone, a level that has only been recorded on rare occasions since BTC has existed as a financial asset.

This is the fourth time in history that Bitcoin’s valuation against gold reaches an RSI of 30. The previous three times coincided with:

• The bottom of the 2015 bear market
• The bottom of the 2018 cycle
• The bottom of the 2022 bear market

This is not a superficial comparison. Measuring Bitcoin against gold removes the noise of the dollar, short-term inflation, or monetary policy. It is a direct reading between two stores of value competing for the same role in the financial system.

And when that ratio enters extreme oversold territory, history warrants attention.

The previous three times: 2015, 2018, and 2022

The data is not minor. The only previous times when Bitcoin’s RSI against gold reached similar levels coincided with:

• The end of the 2015 bear market
• The cycle bottom of 2018
• The capitulation point of 2022

In all three cases, the consensus was negative, interest was at lows, and the dominant narrative favored traditional assets. However, over time, those moments marked strategic accumulation zones relative to gold.

The signal did not predict immediate rises or explosive movements. But it did define zones where Bitcoin’s relative risk compared to the precious metal was historically low.

What is the market really saying today

An RSI around 30 does not mean Bitcoin should rise tomorrow. It signifies something more subtle: that, in relative terms, the market is valuing gold with an extreme premium over BTC.

This often occurs in macro cautious environments, with a preference for classic safe havens and distrust of more volatile assets. But it also tends to coincide with phases where the price has already discounted much of the fear.

From this perspective, Bitcoin is not being punished by a specific event but by a prolonged narrative of prudence. And it is precisely in these moments that ratios begin to tighten.

In summary

History does not guarantee results, but it offers references. When Bitcoin has been as undervalued against gold as it is now, time has ultimately favored those who understood the context rather than the headline.

This is not a sign of euphoria. It is a sign of asymmetry.

And in markets, asymmetry often matters more than certainty.