#加密市场观察 The four-year cycle has become invalid. Is now the best time to bottom-buy Bitcoin?

The four-year cycle has indeed been significantly weakened due to institutionalization, spot ETFs, and macro dominance, but the statement "now is the best time to bottom-buy" is a subjective judgment that requires analysis of indicators and risk management before making a decision. Below are the core conclusions and operational points:

1. Core reasons for cycle invalidation

• Halving effect attenuation: After the 2024 halving, the impact of miner selling pressure drops to 12%, and daily ETF purchase volume often exceeds miners' daily output, reversing supply and demand logic.

• Institutional reshaping of the market: Institutional holdings reach 28% by 2025, with longer-term rational capital, reduced volatility, and more stable prices. The wild swings driven by retail investors weaken.

• Increased macro influence: Federal Reserve interest rates, liquidity, and regulatory policies have a more significant impact, with the cycle being overshadowed by macro rhythms.

• 2025 trend falsification: No violent bull market after halving; instead, it shows oscillation, rendering cycle prediction ineffective.

2. Is now the best time to bottom-buy?

• Supporting signals for "bottom-buy"

◦ On-chain: Hash Ribbons indicate miner selling pressure has eased; exchange reserves have dropped to a three-year low; long-term holders are strongly willing to lock in positions.

◦ Technical: $90,000 is a key support level; if broken, watch $74,500-$80,000 and $68,000 (200-week moving average).

◦ Sentiment: Fear and Greed Index has improved; buy-the-dip activity is active.

◦ Macro: Rate cut expectations favor risk assets; institutional allocation demand persists long-term.

• Risks to watch out for

◦ Technical instability: Daily chart shows oscillation and weakness; no clear breakout. If support at $90,000 breaks, expect a deep correction.

◦ Liquidity and volatility: Low reserves lead to liquidity drying up, and volatility can be amplified.

◦ Regulation and compliance: Policy changes may still trigger volatility; ongoing monitoring is necessary.