#地缘政治风险 Seeing this scene in Venezuela, I am reminded of the scenes from those years. 2008, 2011, 2015... Every major geopolitical move has once caused the market to panic, and back then we were all betting on who could survive the next cycle.

But this time is different. Bitcoin remains steady around $90,000, briefly dips and then quickly recovers—this reaction is worth a close look. It’s important to understand that in an environment of high interest rates and global tensions, risk assets are usually ruthlessly hammered down. But this time, they weren’t.

History shows us that geopolitical shocks fall into two categories: one that the market can price immediately, and another that subtly changes the entire risk appetite structure over time. Reuters’ assessment is probably correct—oil and Latin American assets will be affected, and the direct damage to the global financial system will be limited. But the real impact often lies in the subtle shifts in investor sentiment and capital flows, which are not immediately visible.

This reminds me of the Syria red line in 2013; the market didn’t crash then either, but the logic of risk asset pricing quietly changed afterward. Could this time be the same—seemingly limited shocks that are actually reshaping the long-term logic of asset allocation?

The resilience of the crypto market may precisely indicate that the market has already digested such risks in advance. Or perhaps it is learning to survive under the new geopolitical normal. The OPEC meeting on Sunday will be the real stress test.