Recently, many people have been saying that the bottom of the $BTC bear market is around 80,000, and any further decline would cause too much damage to the market. But I see it a bit differently — if BTC really only drops to 80,000 before stopping, the institutional accumulation cycle will be stretched out, and the market will be stuck in endless oscillations. Even worse, the potential gains in the next bull market could become increasingly limited.

The reasoning is actually quite straightforward. Smaller declines mean less elasticity. Just look at $ETH : during the 2018 bear market, ETH dropped thoroughly, and only then could the next bull market push it to new highs. In contrast, in the 2022 bear market, if ETH can replicate a 95% drop, it would have already broken through 5000 by now. The market is like a spring — the more you compress it, the stronger its rebound.

Following this logic, if we truly want the next bull market to have enough room for imagination, both BTC and ETH need deeper corrections. Breaking below 8K isn’t enough; even breaking below 7K would be considered a comfortable bottom. Only with such accumulated energy can a more powerful rebound be supported.