## Will the bulls defend the SUI price at $80 million unlock? A pivotal moment for Layer-1

Layer-1 blockchain Sui is at a critical juncture. We face a potentially destabilizing token unlock worth $80.41 million, while the market struggles with bearish sentiment. The asset has lost 63.9% of its value during the analyzed period, and the current SUI price is $1.52 with a 24-hour decrease of 2.40%. The question is: can the market bulls defend key resistance levels?

## Supply surge threatens market stability

Data reveal the magnitude of the threat. The unlock involves 1.11% of the total SUI supply and 1.48% of its circulating supply—numbers that cannot be ignored. Among the tokens being unlocked is 0.25% of the supply allocated to early co-founders, valued at approximately $12.58 million.

History shows that early co-founders are usually entities willing to realize gains. In the current bearish climate, they may see this unlock as an ideal moment to exit. If a coordinated sell-off occurs, price pressure could intensify, pushing SUI below current levels.

## Sellers are already exiting positions

The spot market shows signs of weakening. CoinGlass data document significant net outflows over the past 48 hours—totaling $5 million, with the peak selling occurring on December 27. This is the first such wave in over a week, suggesting a shift in market participants’ long-term outlook for SUI.

Technical signals confirm this caution. Trading volume has fallen to $291.41 million, a decrease of 8.99%. Paradoxically: the SUI price increased by 3.45% over the last day, but volume does not confirm this. Such a scenario—price rising on declining volume—indicates weak fundamentals behind the upward movement.

## Technical turning point and bulls’ decision

SUI is currently trading near a key resistance. This zone remains a critical decision point. If bulls can break above it, the chances of returning to the recently tested $3.1 level (last traded on October 6 before the liquidation wave) will significantly increase.

The bearish scenario is equally plausible. Failure to break through could lead the price toward $1 a dollar, which would represent a clear deterioration of prospects. This retreat leaves the market in uncertainty, where everything depends on the direction chosen by major players in the hours preceding the unlock.

## Hope signals amid the noise

Not all indicators point to complete dominance by bears. The total locked value (TVL) in the ecosystem has increased to $922.25 million over the past day, fueled by inflows of $24.8 million. This suggests that some participants still see value in SUI.

The perpetual futures market shows bullish interest. Long position volumes are rising alongside positive funding rates, indicating leveraged traders are betting on a price increase. This creates a dynamic where bulls have tangible incentives to defend support levels.

## What awaits SUI in the coming hours

The outcome depends on which side prevails at the critical moment. The $80 million unlock does not necessarily mean an automatic defeat for the bulls—much depends on broader market conditions and whether other exchanges and ecosystems show interest in entering on the dip. SUI faces a test that will reveal the market’s true resilience and the bulls’ determination to defend current price levels.