Bitcoin "Miner Capitulation" Emerges, VanEck Reveals Price Reversal Signal

Crypto asset management firm VanEck recently released a new on-chain analysis report, pointing out that the significant decline in Bitcoin network hash rate reflects a key market signal—an ongoing miner capitulation wave. According to their historical data backtest, such phenomena often indicate a bottoming pattern for Bitcoin prices.

Currently, BTC trading price is $91.26K, which is not far from the $90,000 level, but it still faces downward pressure at resistance levels. Interestingly, this financial distress faced by miners may be laying the groundwork for a subsequent price rebound.

Hash Rate Contraction Becomes a Key Contrarian Bullish Signal

VanEck explicitly states in the “Mid-December 2025 Bitcoin On-Chain Check” report that a decline in Bitcoin mining difficulty signals that the market may have reached a bottom zone. Analysis data shows that since 2014, whenever network hash rate drops, Bitcoin has a 65% probability of positive returns within the following 90 days.

The logic behind this statistic is clear: a decrease in hash rate indicates that inefficient, high-cost miners have exited the network due to losses. Once these less efficient participants are cleared out, the overall mining efficiency of the network tends to improve, often accompanied by a market sentiment turnaround.

VanEck further adds, “When hash rate compression persists for a longer period, the subsequent positive returns tend to be larger and more frequent.” This suggests that the current miner capitulation process may continue, which could serve as a stronger confirmation signal for a bottom.

Major Profitability Deterioration and Large-Scale Clearing Initiated

As of December 15, Bitcoin hash rate has decreased by about 4% month-over-month, marking the largest drop since April 2024. Behind this decline is the economic hardship faced by miners.

According to VanEck’s monitoring data, mainstream mining machines like the Antminer S19 XP have seen a sharp drop in breakeven electricity costs. This indicator fell from about $0.12 per kWh at the end of 2024 to approximately $0.077 per kWh by mid-December 2025, a decline of over 35%.

Breakeven electricity cost is a critical indicator of miners’ survival threshold—when electricity costs exceed this figure, miners face losses. The lower the number, the worse the economic environment for mining. The current situation means only large operators with access to extremely cheap electricity can remain profitable, while small and medium miners are being forced out.

China’s Hash Rate Shutdown Triggers Chain Reactions

VanEck points out that the main driver of the hash rate month-over-month decline is the shutdown of about 1.3 GW of mining capacity in China. This offline capacity not only directly reduces the total network hash rate but also reflects a restructuring of the global mining landscape.

More notably, a significant portion of this shut capacity is being redirected toward artificial intelligence workloads. According to VanEck’s estimates, this industry shift could ultimately lead to a further decrease of up to 10% in Bitcoin’s total hash rate. Meanwhile, nearly 400,000 Bitcoin miners have been completely offline due to long-term unprofitability.

Despite these challenges, VanEck notes that currently, up to 13 countries are participating in Bitcoin mining with direct support from central governments, reflecting the increasing geopolitical importance of the mining industry.

Miner Capitulation ≠ Market End, Instead Could Be a Turning Point

From a historical perspective, large-scale miner capitulation is usually not a disaster signal but a form of market self-purification. The exit of inefficient miners means improved network efficiency and optimized cost structures. During this process, steadfast Bitcoin holders often wait for a price rebound opportunity.

In the current scenario, the continuous decline in hash rate, large-scale miner shutdowns, and severe profitability deterioration—these seemingly negative data points—are interpreted within VanEck’s analytical framework as a “contrarian bullish signal”—the market may be approaching a turning point rather than further deterioration.