#预测市场 The probability of BTC reaching 100,000 in January on Polymarket jumped from 27% to 38% within two days, which is worth noting. Looking further into the data reveals even more interesting insights— the probability of 95,000 directly from never being published is now at 69%, while the probability of 85,000 has fallen from 68% to 42%, and 80,000 has dropped from 30% to 20%.

What is the core logic reflected here? The market’s consensus on a moderate to strong upward trend is strengthening, but confidence in an extreme breakout (to 100,000) remains cautious. I see two signals here: first, recent on-chain funding or macro sentiment may have shown positive changes, boosting expectations at the mid-range levels; second, the market shows the greatest divergence in the 90,000-100,000 range, indicating this is a genuine resistance level.

From an investment research perspective, instead of fixating on the psychological level of 100,000, it’s better to track the actual capital inflow within the 95,000-100,000 range. If large holdings start gradually accumulating at high levels rather than all at once, then the rising probability prediction can be considered credible. Conversely, if the optimism is only driven by sentiment and large on-chain whales do not follow suit, then the sustainability of the rebound should be questioned.