Mysterious organization makes a big gamble on the Federal Reserve Chair in the prediction market, with the average price far exceeding market expectations

Forecasting markets reappear with large-scale operations. Based on on-chain data tracking, a new account’s massive bet on the Polymarket prediction platform has attracted attention — this account has heavily purchased prediction shares for “Trump nominates Rick Rieder as Federal Reserve Chair” at an average cost of 18 cents, far exceeding the 8% implied probability in the market over the past 48 hours.

Institutional Identity Emerges

Through Arkham on-chain data analysis, this account is suspected to be Hypersphere Capital — a well-known venture capital firm focused on blockchain and DeFi sectors. The address previously held assets worth up to $30 million and has a Coinbase Prime enterprise account, which is standard for institutional investors (asset management firms, market makers, trust funds, etc.). This indicates that it is not retail operations but genuine institutional players placing bets.

Trump’s Interview Imminent, Market Senses a Signal

The timing is not coincidental. According to Fox Business, Trump is scheduled to interview Rick Rieder at the White House this Thursday to assess his suitability for the Federal Reserve Chair position. The appearance of a large bet at this time suggests that institutions may have already obtained certain information or have a high confidence in Rieder’s nomination probability.

Rieder’s Policy Stance

In a recent CNBC interview, Rick Rieder publicly stated that the Federal Reserve Chair should remain independent and explicitly called for continued rate cuts, aiming to bring interest rates down to 3%, with at least another 50 basis points cut to stimulate economic growth. This dovish stance has attracted significant market attention in the current macro environment.

Data Overview

• Account Address: 0x1138c6c14b9f3b6edd719d0b7b471bd896afe410
• Position Size: $10,000
• Average Purchase Price: 18 cents
• Recent Market Implied Probability: 8%

Institutional investors’ movements in prediction markets often reflect genuine informational advantages. This bet, suspected to originate from Hypersphere Capital, indicates that some professional investors see a high likelihood of Rieder’s nomination and further highlights the buzz around the Federal Reserve Chair candidate in both the crypto community and traditional financial markets.