Predicting Market Sentiment Reversal: The probability of Bitcoin breaking $100,000 in January drops from 43% to 25%

HashBandit · 2026-01-19T04:34:09+00:00

Bitcoin's short-term market enthusiasm cools down, with the probability of reaching $100,000 decreasing from 43% to 25%. The chance of reaching $105,000 is only 8%, while the probability of dropping to $85,000 increases to 21%. Market participants' sentiment has become cautious, reflecting a reassessment of recent gains.

HashBandit

2026-01-19 04:34:09

Abstract generation in progress

【Blockchain Rhythm】The heat of the prediction market has significantly cooled down. Data from January 19th shows that the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 in January has dropped from 43% yesterday to 25%. This shift reflects the market’s rapid adjustment in expectations regarding recent upward trends.

Looking at the details, the probability of reaching $105,000 is only 8%, while more conservative forecasts are also increasing — the probability of dropping to $85,000 is 21%, and dropping to $80,000 is 8%. Market participants seem to be reassessing Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory, shifting from previous optimism to a more cautious outlook. Changes in such forecast data often reflect real-time attitude shifts among large investors and market participants.

BTC-2,3%

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NFTArchaeologis

· 4h ago

43% directly slashed to 25%, this contrast is a bit like watching an antique appraisal show suddenly go off the rails... The market's "authenticity" is being rewritten in real-time.

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ZKProofEnthusiast

· 15h ago

43% directly drops to 25%, the rebound expectation collapsed too quickly This wave really shows someone is dumping with a bearish mindset, the probability of dropping from 85,000 has already reached 21% 100,000 is not that easy; we still need to see subsequent data to speak

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LiquidityNinja

· 15h ago

This wave of sentiment reversal is incredible, dropping directly from 43% to 25%? It indicates the bulls are about to collapse. The attitude changed so drastically in just one day; I should have reversed my position yesterday.

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HashRateHustler

· 15h ago

43% directly drops to 25%? Is that real... The market is so quick to back down The dream of 100,000 USD shattered so quickly What happened to the promised new high? Changed tune in just one day

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ser_we_are_ngmi

· 15h ago

Ha, 43% directly drops to 25%, how many people must be scared to death In one day? That's a bit too exaggerated I'm still waiting for 105,000, but the probability is only 8%, are you kidding me? It seems the big players are starting to panic and are adjusting their expectations The probability of dropping to 85,000 is 21%, this seems more realistic

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ForkInTheRoad

· 15h ago

43% directly drops to 25%? This prediction market really has emotions written all over it. --- Starting to look for an exit position again, it seems. --- Wait, is this really concern or just another washout? --- Conservative predictions are coming out, it seems the big players are not so confident anymore. --- $100,000 is gone just like that... the market is really unpredictable. --- From optimistic to cautious in a day, how much negative information does that entail? --- I just want to know how much trust can be placed in this data. --- An 8.5% probability at 21%, does this instead look like bottom support?

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