#美联储降息政策 Seeing the global stock market hit its largest six-year gain in 2025, my first reaction isn't excitement but a familiar sense of caution. A 21% increase, reaching record highs, driven by Federal Reserve rate cuts—these phrases I’ve heard too many times together.

Looking back, every major market rally has hidden risks. Loose monetary policy can indeed boost asset prices, but that optimistic sentiment is the easiest to blind people. Data like an average 1.4% gain on the first trading day of the new year may seem steady, but it actually encourages people to ignore a reality: valuations are already high, and policymakers still have disagreements.

That’s the core issue. When the market is running high and policy expectations start to shift, it’s often the critical point from greed to fear. I’ve seen too many people chase gains at this stage—whether in stocks or various crypto assets—the logic is the same: optimistic outlook, buying at high levels, ultimately paying the price as the bagholder.

What we need in 2026 isn’t optimism but clarity. High valuation levels mean limited upside potential, but plenty of room for downside. Instead of blindly chasing the rally, it’s better to take this moment to think: how much of a pullback can your holdings withstand? Where should your stop-loss be set? When is it time to take profits and secure gains?

These questions are more worth asking repeatedly than trying to predict market ups and downs.