#美国核心物价涨幅不及市场预估 The competition for the Fed Chair candidate is playing out a fierce "alignment" shift in the prediction market.

Polymarket's latest data is quite interesting—Kevin Waugh's nomination probability has surged to over 60%, leaving other candidates behind. In comparison, Haskett's support has declined from an early leading position to around 15%, tying with incumbent board member Waller.

This is not just a simple numerical change; it reflects a complete adjustment in the market's expectations for future policy directions.

Today, Trump publicly mentioned that he wants White House National Economic Council Director Haskett to stay in his current position—using the phrase "wait and see" to conclude. The market interpreted this very clearly: Haskett is basically no longer in the final candidate list for Fed Chair.

Even more interestingly, Haskett himself also sent signals, proactively saying "Waugh and Rieder would both be good Fed Chairs." Such self-promotion in politics is essentially a signal of withdrawal.

The key observation point is:

Market expectations for the Chair candidate have shifted from "multiple contenders" to "Waugh leading alone"; political statements, public comments, and prediction market data are highly consistent, forming a very strong directional judgment; what does this mean for financial markets? It indicates that the uncertainty around future monetary policy is clearly decreasing.

For traders in risk assets, the choice of Fed Chair often has a bigger impact than a single rate decision. When the market starts pricing expectations in advance, the real trend usually happens quietly.

Next, the market's focus is not on "whether there will be changes," but on "if Waugh takes office, how will the policy tone evolve"—this is the core variable that will determine the next phase. $DUSK $AXS $BERA