#DeFi交易与收益 Seeing Cantor's year-end report, I have mixed feelings. The "crypto winter" theory for 2026 is no longer unfamiliar to me, having experienced 2018 and 2022. But this time, I am actually less worried.

I still remember the last cycle: DeFi crashes, chain reaction of contract liquidations, retail investors losing everything. Back then, the market was entirely driven by emotion, and a single large bearish candle could trigger a stampede crash. Looking at it now, the landscape has completely changed. Institutional involvement has altered the underlying logic—they won't follow the trend to dump, but instead quietly position themselves when prices are under pressure.

This is the core shift. The "divergence" phenomenon pointed out by Cantor—that prices decline while on-chain infrastructure continues to strengthen—is, in my view, a sign of the industry maturing. DeFi, tokenized assets, on-chain ecosystems—these truly productive elements won't become invalid just because Bitcoin briefly drops below 75,000. On the contrary, they offer more low-cost entry opportunities for forward-looking investors.

The advancement of the U.S. "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act" is even more critical. It means uncertainty is diminishing, and banks will really come in. What we are waiting for is not the next hype cycle, but long-term prosperity after infrastructure is laid out.

Young people might still be worried about the winter, but I actually look forward to its arrival. The winter will clear out projects without real applications and highlight truly valuable protocols and ecosystems. This kind of survival of the fittest is actually beneficial for long-term participants.