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The US stock market closed with minor declines in the three major indices. The Dow fell 0.17% (down 0.29% this week), the S&P 500 declined 0.06% (down 0.38% this week), and the Nasdaq dropped 0.06% (down 0.66% this week). Cryptocurrency markets are experiencing gradually decreasing weekend volatility. If you trade short-term at this time, the risk is very small. As I’ve mentioned many times before, weekends are the best time to accumulate positions, mainly depending on whether you can accurately gauge the high and low points of the range. If you can seize the entry timing, it becomes very simple. If the market breaks out, you can hold and wait for stabilization before exiting. Follow Yibo as he continues to track core signals such as the implementation of Federal Reserve policies, institutional fund flows, and on-chain data changes, providing real-time updates on layout strategies and target movements.
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Yesterday, Bitcoin’s white market session showed a tug-of-war, with prices oscillating within the range of $95,100 to $95,800. Both bulls and bears had relatively balanced strength, and the market lacked clear directional guidance. This stalemate persisted until the US stock market opened in the evening, causing brief volatility. The price spiked briefly to $95,770 but failed to break through the upper resistance of the range and quickly retraced downward. This pullback was linked to the US stock trend, with the lowest dip near $94,200. Supported by buy orders at low levels, it gradually rebounded and has now recovered to around $95,500, returning to the previous consolidation range. From a market environment perspective, cryptocurrency markets typically show liquidity contraction during weekends, as institutional funds exit, reducing market activity and making effective breakouts difficult. More importantly, Monday coincides with Martin Luther King Jr. Day, and US markets will be closed, temporarily interrupting the transmission and emotional linkage of traditional financial markets. Coupled with the previous 46% daily correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index, the US market holiday will further weaken volatility momentum, likely extending the oscillation cycle and range. Technically, Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart remains in a weak consolidation phase, with short-term support at $94,200 to $94,500 and key resistance at $95,800 to $96,000. Until this range is broken, the market will mainly fluctuate sideways.
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Ethereum’s trend closely mirrors Bitcoin, showing a pattern of “synchronized oscillation and linked retracement.” Yesterday’s white market saw Ethereum repeatedly tugging within the $3,220 to $3,270 range, with bulls and bears battling within a narrow zone. Trading volume remained subdued, reflecting a market in wait-and-see mode. In the evening, a brief move pushed the price to $3,317 but quickly retreated, with a low of $3,252. Following Bitcoin’s rebound, Ethereum gradually recovered, reaching a high of around $3,296, but the rebound was limited and failed to break above the previous high of the range. From a larger structural perspective, Ethereum’s 4-hour chart remains in a small-range pullback consolidation, with MACD indicators showing recovery but with diminishing upward momentum and no clear bullish or bearish signals. Ethereum’s volatility is usually driven by Bitcoin’s movements, and with Bitcoin currently lacking direction, Ethereum is unlikely to move independently. Considering the weekend and US market holiday environment, limited liquidity will further restrict price fluctuations. In the short term, expect Ethereum to stay within the $3,220 to $3,320 range. During this oscillation, blindly chasing gains or panicking to sell is risky. A more prudent approach is to buy low and sell high within the range, while reserving some positions to hedge against black swan events. In a low-liquidity environment, sudden news can trigger abnormal price swings.