Last night, as soon as the Federal Reserve spoke, the market naturally played out the "rally - pullback" cycle. This is no longer new—what truly determines the market direction is never the news itself, but the gap between market speculation on policy intentions and actual data.

**Trump loosens his stance but keeps a hidden hand**

Longtime critic of Fed Chair Powell, Trump, recently made his first statement saying "no plans to fire him for now." It sounds like a easing signal, but there is deeper meaning behind it—he also named two potential successors: former Fed Governor Kevin Wirth and White House economic advisor Kevin Hasset. Both are clearly more aligned with Trump's stance, indicating a move to lay the groundwork for future control of monetary policy. The apparent "Fed independence" issue seems to cool down, but underlying currents are surging.

**The truth revealed by the Beige Book data**

The Fed's Beige Book released simultaneously shows: 8 regions' economies are growing moderately, consumer spending has rebounded slightly, and employment is basically stable. It sounds good, but the problem always exists—inflation pressures have not truly subsided. PPI data remains strong, and tariff costs are spreading across the US. Analysts point out that if signs of inflation rebound appear, even with leadership changes, the rate-hike cycle could be indefinitely delayed.

**The market will swing between two extremes**

This year's core contradiction is the collision between a cautious policy stance and fluctuating economic data. The market will oscillate between "strong economic performance - delaying rate cuts" and "weak data - preemptive rate cuts." This uncertainty also significantly impacts the crypto market—volatility increases, but opportunities and risks coexist. In such an environment, more important than blindly going all-in is finding your own rhythm.

**What is your judgment?** Will Powell serve his full term smoothly? If one of the "two Kevins" takes over, will the Fed become a tool of Trump's policies? Feel free to share your views.