The hope for a rate cut in January has been completely dashed. The latest data is in front of us: initial jobless claims have fallen to 198,000, well below the market expectation of 215,000, and the unemployment rate is also declining. As a result, traders are collectively changing their stance, with only a 5% chance of a rate cut in January, and 95% betting that interest rates will stay unchanged. Those who previously bet on a rate cut in April are now shifting their bets to June.

Recent signals from Federal Reserve officials are increasingly hawkish. Atlanta Fed President Bostic advised not to rush into a rate cut, while Chicago Fed President Goolsbee emphasized that bringing inflation down to 2% is the top priority — Kansas City Fed President Scheidecker even opposed further rate cuts. The consistent tone from these officials indicates one thing: the economy's resilience has exceeded expectations, and the Federal Reserve is unlikely to loosen policy in the short term.

What do institutions think? Goldman Sachs predicts a 25 basis point cut in June and September, with core inflation expected to approach the 2% target by the end of the year. But there are also warnings that if policies remain too loose, a repeat of the 1970s stagflation could happen. The market has already reacted — the dollar's decline is stabilizing, gold and silver surged then started to face pressure, and risk assets supported by rate cut expectations are beginning to panic.

For the crypto world, this is critical. History shows that when the Fed shifts policy, Bitcoin can plummet 17% in a single day, with over 1.64 million traders forced to liquidate. The current situation is that the high-interest rate environment is more stable than expected, and the liquidity easing window has been pushed back. The crypto market will have to endure the pressure of high rates for a while, and volatility is inevitable.

The question is: will June really see a rate cut from the Fed? Or will they continue to maintain the current stance? Can Bitcoin withstand this prolonged high-interest-rate battle? If the risk of a second round of inflation truly emerges, will crypto assets become a new safe haven? These are the issues to watch closely in the coming days.