#加密市场行情分析 Bloomberg data is worth paying attention to. BGCI has increased by 90% from the end of 2017 to December 30, comparable to the global stock market growth, but with a volatility seven times higher — this comparison clearly illustrates the issue.

In other words, we are bearing seven times the volatility risk without obtaining corresponding excess returns. This is not just cyclical fluctuation, but a warning of an unbalanced risk-reward ratio.

From an on-chain perspective, there are several details worth observing at this point: whether whales are gradually reducing their positions at high levels, whether large capital inflows are beginning to slow down, and whether the leverage ratio in contract data remains high. If these signals all point in the same direction, then Bloomberg analysts' judgments will have greater reference value.

However, the nearing end of the risk asset upward cycle does not mean an immediate decline; there are many variables in between. The key is to identify early signs of capital flow reversals when data is unbalanced, rather than being caught off guard by rapid adjustments later on.