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Recent dramatic shifts in the macro political landscape have occurred. This seemingly unrelated game to the crypto market is actually reshaping the entire industry’s policy environment.
The core of the event lies in the significant increase in the stability of the Federal Reserve Chair’s position. Previously, the market’s betting probability of their departure before May was as high as 70%, but now it has dropped straight to 50%. More notably, the probability of leaving before the end of the year has dropped to zero. This reversal of expectations indicates that market confidence in policy continuity is recovering.
What does this stability mean for the crypto market? Simply put, it means a reduction in uncertainty. The biggest enemy of the crypto industry has never been technical bottlenecks but policy abrupt changes. When macro policy expectations become clearer, capital will have more confidence to enter this track.
Historical data shows that each time macro financial risks are released, it ultimately strengthens the independence of crypto assets. The stability of traditional financial markets provides space for the crypto market’s independent trend. This time, the realization of policy expectations could also become such a turning point.
As the haze in the macro environment clears and policy dividends are gradually released, the growth opportunities for the crypto market may be taking shape. The key is to seize this wave of friendly policies, find opportunities with real fundamentals, rather than blindly chasing highs.