The daily chart-level shorting opportunity has finally arrived. From a technical perspective, BTC has completed the 12345 wave pattern of decline, with wave 5 as the impulsive wave already in place. This rebound is most likely just an abc correction, and the chance of breaking new highs is very slim.

Looking at the macro level, market liquidity has already become noticeably tight—banks are starting to borrow from the Federal Reserve, which essentially means the market is short of funds. Japan's interest rate hike will drain a significant amount of US stock market funds. The US stock market itself is highly bubble-like, and I’ve heard that some large investors are quietly reducing their positions. The landscape in 2026 will be very challenging: liquidity will continue to tighten, and geopolitical tensions will escalate. In this environment, only precious metals still have a chance to continue their bull market.

Everyone is well aware of the characteristics of the crypto space—highly speculative and highly sensitive. Once mainstream assets encounter problems, funds will immediately flee. Coupled with BTC’s four-year cyclical pattern, all these factors point to the same conclusion: the bear market has already begun.

My personal trading approach is very clear: build short positions in batches within the range of 9.5K-10.4K—start with $1,000 at 9.5K, add another $1,000 at 9.6K, continue adding at 9.7K, and so on. ETH can be operated in sync. This batch-building method allows you to survive longer in the capital market and prepares you psychologically for long-term combat.

For reference only.