Gold faces significant pressure today, fluctuating within a narrow range throughout the morning, with neither bulls nor bears daring to be too aggressive.

Looking at the background, signs of easing in the Middle East situation have emerged, and the geopolitical risk aversion sentiment has noticeably declined. This was originally a major support for gold prices, but now it has become a resistance factor. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is beginning to signal a hawkish tone—officials emphasize that they will not cut rates unless inflation clearly declines. The latest unemployment claims data also came in below expectations, confirming that the labor market remains resilient. Expectations for a rate cut in March are cooling off, and the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields are rising accordingly, exerting direct downward pressure on gold prices. Additionally, the world's largest gold ETF holdings are decreasing, with continuous outflows, further increasing the adjustment pressure.

From a technical perspective, the 1-hour chart shows that gold is struggling. After spiking to 4642 yesterday, it plunged to 4581. Following a rebound, it has been oscillating around 4618, repeatedly blocked at the 4622 level, with a clear downward channel beginning to form. The Bollinger Bands are starting to narrow and flatten, MACD is fluctuating near the zero line, and KDJ has turned downward from high levels. Currently, the bulls lack strength, and the bears are temporarily dominating the momentum.

Trading strategy: Consider short positions on rebounds to the 4622-4630 range, targeting 4600-4590. Conversely, if the price falls to 4585-4595 and can hold above this strong support, go long targeting 4610-4618. Keep a close eye on geopolitical developments and dollar fluctuations; once key levels are broken, follow the trend accordingly.

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